CNC machine tools are digitally controlled machine tools and are automated machine tools with program control systems. According to the performance and grade of CNC machine tools, CNC machine tools can be divided into high-end CNC machine tools, mid-range CNC machine tools, and low-end CNC machine tools. High-end CNC machine tools refer to CNC machine tools with high-speed, precision, intelligent, composite, multi-axis linkage, network communication and other functions.

As the "mother of industry", machine tools are a symbol of the level of manufacturing in a country. CNC machine tools were invented by American inventor John Parsons in the last century. With the development of electronic information technology, the world machine tool industry has entered the era of mechatronics with digital manufacturing technology as the core, among which CNC machine tools are one of the representative products. CNC machine tool is a high-performance, automatic machine tool with program control system, which can solve complex, precise, small batch, multi-variety parts processing problems, and represents the development direction of modern machine tool control technology.

The industrialized countries such as Europe, the United States and Japan have successively completed the industrialization process of CNC machine tools, and China started from the 1980s and is now in the development stage. Although China's foundry machine tool industry has achieved certain results, it still faces many constraints. Compared with foreign products, the gap between China's CNC machine tools is mainly in the high-speed, high-efficiency and precision of machine tools.

The CNC machine tool market is very large, with more than 300 billion yuan in 2017.

From the perspective of China's CNC machine tool market, benefiting from the rapid development of China's automotive, aerospace, shipbuilding, power equipment, engineering machinery and other industries, the machine tool market, especially CNC machine tools, has generated huge demand, and the CNC machine tool industry has grown rapidly. According to statistics, in 2014-2016, China's CNC machine tool sales revenue exceeded 240 billion yuan; in 2016, China's CNC machine tool sales were 273.2 billion yuan, an increase of 7.69%. In 2017, sales were approximately 3,060 million yuan, exceeding 300 billion yuan for the first time.

Chart 1: Status and planning of China's smart grid investment scale in 2009-2017 (Unit: 100 million yuan, %)

Source: Prospective Industry Research Institute

Downstream applications are still dominated by the automotive industry, and consumer electronics will become the mainstream application market in the future.

From the perspective of the downstream consumption demand of the CNC machine tool industry, the automobile is the main downstream demand field, with the consumption ratio accounting for about 42%; the second is the aerospace, the consumption proportion is about 18%; the mold and engineering machinery are the CNC machine third and The fourth consumer sector accounts for around 15% and 10% respectively.

In the future, with the gradual popularization of smartphones, the speed of updating and upgrading, the promotion and development of 3C industry terminal equipment such as consumer electronics and communications such as tablet PCs and wearable devices, the 3C industry will usher in the spring of development, the consumer electronics industry. The product will become a new growth point in the industry and will strongly promote the development of light-duty CNC machine tools used in this field.

Chart 2: China's CNC machine tool industry downstream application market structure (unit: %)

The contradiction between the demand structure of CNC machine tools has been upgraded, and the localization rate of high-end products is low.

In recent years, China's CNC machine tool industry has seen an obvious contradiction between supply and demand, mainly reflected in the overcapacity of low-end CNC machine tools and the lack of supply of high-end CNC machine tools, resulting in structural imbalance on the supply side. Due to the low threshold of low-end CNC machine tools, there are many enterprises entering the market, and in recent years, the effective demand for low-end CNC machine tools market is insufficient. The phenomenon of overcapacity has appeared in this field. On the other hand, with the development of the national economy and the upgrading of industrial structure, high-end The application of CNC machine tools is becoming more and more popular, the demand for products is getting bigger and bigger, and the supply is difficult to meet the demand.

Due to the late start of China's high-end CNC machine tools, the current domestic production capacity can not meet domestic demand, most domestic high-end CNC machine tools rely on imports. In 2016, the high-end CNC system supported by CNC machine tools has been sold more than 1,000 sets. The domestic market share has increased from less than 1% before the special start to around 5%. In 2017, the localization rate of China's high-end CNC machine tools was about 6 % or so, still small. However, from the perspective of demand, the demand for high-end CNC machine tools in China has reached about 10% in 2013, and it is between 15-20% in 2017, which is quite different from the localization rate of 6%.

At present, China's manufacturing industry urgently needs to change from a "manufacturing power" to a "manufacturing power." After decades of development, China's CNC machine tool industry has become the world's largest producer and seller, with rapid development of technology and production capacity. It has already responded to the transformation of the national manufacturing industry. In the future, China's CNC machine tool demand will shift from medium to low-end to high-grade, in other words, high-grade CNC. The machine tool will have a large import replacement space.

Figure 3: Localization rate of different CNC machine tools in China (unit: %)

Source: Prospective Industry Research Institute

Three major trends lead, the future of China's CNC machine tool market will exceed 500 billion yuan

The economic development of the 13th Five-Year Plan focuses on the transformation of economic growth mode. Advanced manufacturing is the transformation direction of traditional manufacturing. The development of high-tech industries such as electronic information, bioengineering, new energy and new materials will be precise and efficient. Special CNC machine tools have opened up new demands; from the analysis of geographical development, the upgrading of industries in eastern China, the revitalization of old industrial bases in Northeast China and the development of the central and western regions, accelerating the pace of the development of CNC machine tool industry; economic globalization, international The transfer of capital and industry to China, the exchange of international technology and talents, and the strong development of China's international trade have provided an external environment for the development of China's CNC machine tool industry, making the CNC machine tool industry a rare strategic development period. In the future, China's CNC machine tool industry will mainly present the following three major development trends:

First of all, the comprehensive competitiveness of domestic CNC machine tools will be greatly improved, which will lead to fundamental changes in the market share of domestic CNC machine tools.

Secondly, a number of wholly-owned enterprises or joint ventures established by a group of multinational machine tool groups in China, such as Germany's DMG, the United States, Harding, Japan's Little Giant, etc., local production will form production capacity.

Finally, the industrialization of popular CNC machine tools will be formed. Universal CNC machine tools and machining centers CNC machine tools are among the fastest growing and the largest proportion of all kinds of products, and they are also the most widely used equipment in the manufacturing industry. As a mid-range CNC machine tool, the popular CNC machine tool has become the mainstream of consumption. Its proportion in CNC machine tools has exceeded 30%, and the growth rate is much higher than other types of machine tools, including the growth rate of CNC machine tools.

Figure 4: Three major development trends of China's CNC machine tool industry during the 13th Five-Year Plan period

Source: Prospective Industry Research Institute

In 2018-2023, China's CNC machine tools will maintain a growth rate of 10%-12% due to technological development and the gradual recovery of the downstream market. By 2023, the market size of China's CNC machine tool industry will exceed 500 billion yuan.

Chart 5: China's CNC machine tool industry market size forecast for 2018-2023 (unit: 100 million yuan)

Source: Prospective Industry Research Institute

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