April PMI re-innovation and low economy face downside risks
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The National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Research Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released data on the 1st. The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.6% in April. Although it was above the critical point for 7 consecutive months, it fell 0.3% from the previous month. The percentage point was set at a new low in three months, and both the new order sub-index and the production sub-index fell, indicating that the Chinese economy is facing downside risks and the growth momentum needs to be strengthened.
According to the survey, the main index of the manufacturing PMI, the production index was 52.6%, a slight drop of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that manufacturing production continued to grow, with a slight slowdown; the new order index was 51.7. %, down 0.6 percentage points, above the critical point for 7 consecutive months, indicating that the order quantity of manufacturing products continued to grow, but the growth rate narrowed.
In addition, the purchase price index of the main raw materials (market area) of manufacturing enterprises in April was 40.1%, a sharp drop of 10.5 percentage points from the previous month and fell below the critical point, indicating that the purchase price of raw materials in the manufacturing industry has dropped from a rising to a significant drop. The expected index of production and operation activities was 59.3%, down 6.2 percentage points, indicating that the proportion of manufacturing enterprises that are optimistic about the expected production and operation activities in the next three months has declined.
Weak economic recovery, PMI fell again in April
Yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics and the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released data show that the official manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 50.6% in April from 50.9% in March, down 0.3 percentage points, and new orders, inventory and more. The index fell, and new export orders fell below the line of glory, indicating that manufacturing demand is still under pressure.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that the PMI index fell slightly in April, indicating that the foundation for economic stabilization is still not consolidated. “It is expected that the economic growth rate will have a slight downward trend in the future. We should focus on stabilizing domestic demand and improving the sustainability of economic stability.â€
The data shows that, except for the decline of the total index, the major individual indices also showed different degrees of decline. Among them, the new order index fell 0.6 percentage points, the new export order index fell more than two percentage points and fell below 50%, and the production index declined slightly. 0.1 percentage points, while the purchase price index fell sharply by 10.5 percentage points to a low of 40.1%.
Zhang Liqun pointed out that from the perspective of demand, the new order index, the new export order index, and the backlog index are all falling. From the perspective of inventory, the finished goods inventory and purchasing volume index are also falling. These circumstances indicate that the decline in order levels has begun to shift replenishment stocks to destocking. The purchase price index fell sharply in April, reflecting the negative changes in corporate expectations.
Cai Jin, vice president of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, believes that the weakening of the PMI indicates that the economic growth momentum needs to be strengthened.
Liu Ligang, chief economist of ANZ Greater China, said that the PMI fell again, indicating that the overall economy continues the previous weak recovery. Of course, bird flu may also affect the overall economic performance.
Despite this, the pace of economic restructuring has gradually accelerated. From the performance of PMI this year, the economic operation has undergone obvious changes, and it is changing from the speed type driven by scale expansion to the benefit type relying on structural transformation and upgrading. Among them, equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries are developing positively. situation.
The data shows that the new orders index for equipment manufacturing in April reached more than 54%, and the fluctuations were small; the non-metallic mineral products industry increased significantly, with an increase of more than 4 percentage points, reflecting investment in infrastructure investment, enterprise equipment renewal and technological transformation investment. Sexual needs remain in good shape.
“Fiscal spending and investment are relatively slow, which is the most important reason for the economic slowdown, but this may also be a signal that Chinese officials are considering focusing on solving structural problems and changing investment-centered economic policies.†Liu Ligang Point out.