China's banking industry faces the most serious "money shortage"
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"Money shortage" has come, many banks are fully committed to "grab the money war", sending rice, sending oil, sending mobile phones and other means emerge one after another.
It is not only commercial banks affected by the "money shortage", but the entire financial industry including funds, brokerages and trusts has affected, but it has little impact on the property security of ordinary people. At the same time, the financial experts interviewed generally believe that the "money shortage" may continue for some time, but at the latest no more than mid-July.
"Money shortage" attracted the rumors of BOC breach of contract
Since the beginning of this week, the average daily turnover of the interbank borrowing market has reached more than 80 billion yuan. The "earthquake" of the "money shortage" is also from the interbank borrowing market.
In June, the interbank borrowing market interest rate rose rapidly, and the overnight lending rate rose particularly rapidly. Starting from 4.5%, the intraday trading broke through the 10%, 20%, and 30% mark, and constantly refreshed the historical record since the establishment of the interbank market. Under its leadership, the short-term capital price within one month soared across the board, and the 7-day pledged repo weighted average interest rate rose to 11.6217% on Thursday, also setting a new high since the establishment of the interbank market in 2007.
On the same day, the market exposed the central bank to inject 50 billion yuan into ICBC, and many rumors of bank defaults due to liquidity shortages. The interbank market was forced to delay the market for half an hour, shaking the entire financial market. The rumor triggered widespread concern about the liquidity of China's banking industry as a result of similar trading defaults and delayed closings earlier this month.
Although the Bank of China issued a clarification announcement that night: "The Bank of China has never had a fund default event, and all external payments were completed on time on June 20. The market rumors are not true." But there were rumors yesterday that the Bank of China did not default on the same day. However, on Thursday, the interbank market did delay the closing of the market for half an hour, while the Bank of China only failed to meet its obligations on time at the scheduled closing time of 4:30 pm.
Yesterday, as the Bank of China clarified the rumors of default, the market panic eased slightly, and the interest rate of funds fell across the board. The 1-day repo rate plummeted by 380 basis points to 7.9%, the biggest drop since October 2007.
Send rice to send mobile phone to the mobile bank to usher in "grab money fight"
The reporter visited and found that many banks are fully committed to "grab the money war" in the middle of the year. At the Tianjin Waidi Road branch of Everbright Bank, the account manager told reporters that 100,000 yuan of money will be deposited for one year. Not only will the interest rate rise to the top, but also 4 bags of 10 kg of rice; the customer manager of a branch of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank said that If the new customer has 50,000 yuan for more than half a year, they can send a 5-piece microwave oven porcelain bowl.
Some banks attract customers by depositing cash back, and each 10,000 yuan can return cash of tens of dollars. In order to obtain deposits, some account managers often reimburse customers for transfer fees and even travel fares.
In addition to these traditional means, "super online banking", a "high-tech weapon", is also widely used. Many bank lobby managers encourage customers to open “super online banking†and “collect†idle deposits from other banks to the bank. To this end, some large-scale banks have also adopted “countermeasures†to limit the size of daily “collected†funds.
The capital situation is "unprecedently fierce" and the central bank "does not move"
Although the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) has repeatedly “explodedâ€, the confidence of the market funds has been plunged, and the market has been screaming; but for the moment, the management’s attitude of “not releasing water†remains firm.
The industry generally interprets that the issuance of central bank bills this week is enough to demonstrate the attitude and determination of the central bank to tighten liquidity. It is impossible to lower the RRR and cut interest rates in the short term.
The Chinese interbank money market experienced a historic moment yesterday. On the same day, SHIBOR rose by 5,78.40 BP overnight, and the “breaking watch†rose to a historical high of 13.4440%. The intraday session rose to an astonishing 30%.
In addition to the SHIBOR interest rate, the inter-bank repo rate performance is also hot, and the range of each term is up to 100 basis points. Among them, the overnight and 7-day repo rates rose 377.7BP and 321.2BP, respectively, and jumped to a rare double-digit level of 11.650% and 11.449%.
Many people in the industry even use "unprecedently fierce" to describe the current funding situation.
With the fermenting of nervous emotions, yesterday’s rumors about “Bank of China’s fund defaultâ€, “the central bank released 50 billion yuan to ICBC†and “the central bank placed 400 billion yuan in the 30 minutes before the market to ease market liquidity†were even more vocal.
It should be pointed out that the performance of the central bank is still very calm compared to the “wind and roll†of the market. In the open market operation conducted on Thursday, the reverse repurchase that everyone expected was still not showing up, and the 2 billion yuan of central bank bills issued a firm attitude of management's "iron and blood correction."
After taking a big drop yesterday, A-shares opened sharply lower in the morning, and the two cities fell nearly 2%. However, financial stocks represented by Xinhua Insurance have since pulled up the support. In the afternoon, the major stock indexes have turned red, but unfortunately failed to maintain. Red plate to the market. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 2073.09 points, down 10.93 points, down by 0.52%. The Shenzhen Component Index was at 81.6.05 points, down 11.44 points, or 0.14%.
doubt
How can banks have money shortages? A large amount of funds stayed in the financial system, and this year the central bank no longer intervenes in market fluctuations.
How can banks lack money and are still so lacking? Li Xunlei, chief economist of Haitong Securities, said in an interview with Southern Reporter that the liquidity in the market is actually very abundant, only a large amount of funds stay in the financial system for arbitrage; while hot money outflow and monetary policy are tight, especially the central bank to the interbank The attitude of the market is obviously different from the previous ones. As a result, many financial institutions misjudged, and did not promptly and fully prepare for the funding arrangements due this month. Then there was a short-term liquidity exhaustion and even a breach of contract, and the market panic spread. Finally, the capital market interest rate soared.
From the perspective of the entire banking industry, especially in June and December of each year, banking institutions are faced with a double assessment at the end of the month and the end of the season. There is an impulse to “borrow moneyâ€, which is the peak of capital demand over the years. In previous years, the central bank usually intervened in the market at the moment when funds were most scarce, and injected some funds to stabilize the price of funds. This kind of behavior has caused many financial institutions to rely on the central bank. They believe that the central bank will always be the bottom of the market. The central bank is also dubbed "the mother" among some traders. However, this year, the central bank has adopted a laissez-faire attitude toward the interbank market, regardless of how the market fluctuates, or does not intervene. Not only that, but the central bank also continued to issue central bank bills to recover liquidity, and even borrowed money from some financial institutions at a high price. However, due to misjudgment, many banks did not have sufficient funds due for maturity before June, resulting in high-priced borrowing and transaction default.
Where did the money go? Going to leverage and shadow banking
In the rapid development of the inter-bank market in recent years, some financial institutions have gradually found that through interbank lending, they can quickly obtain large amounts of funds from other financial institutions at very low cost (such as 3%), and then through leveraged investment and maturity mismatches. Funds can help them achieve higher returns in other markets (such as shadow banking) (often more than 10% or even 30%). As long as the due funds plan is properly arranged, the risk-free set can be realized through round-trip transactions. Take a considerable spread. More importantly, the bank capital occupied by the inter-bank business is extremely small. In the banking industry where capital supervision is becoming more and more strict, the inter-bank business has gradually developed from a humble edge business to a key business or even a core business of many large and medium-sized banks.
The person in charge of the investment banking business of a joint-stock bank in Guangzhou Branch said that “structured financing is essentially a shadow bank, but it is a formal and legal shadow banking business that has been reported to the regulatory authorities,†the official said.
He also revealed that in fact, various joint-stock banks of such businesses have participated in different degrees, and even some state-owned banks are involved. However, due to soaring capital prices, the yield of short- and medium-term wealth management products in the market (6-7%) has been higher than that of medium- and long-term products (about 5%). The interest rate is reversed. The bank has lost the issuance space and profit margin of the products and can only be suspended. .
Is your bank deposit safe? Will not affect the safety of the vast majority of people, but be cautious in the stock market, the property market
In response to the impact of the bank's "money shortage" incident, Li Xunlei said that although the "money shortage" occurred in the short-term phenomenon of the financial inter-bank market, the impact has affected the entire financial industry including funds, brokerages and trusts, but these effects Both local and short-term, will not affect the traditional business of the bank, and will not affect the property safety of the vast majority of people.
The major banks in Shenzhen, which were interviewed by Nandu yesterday, said that they are currently operating in compliance and have sufficient funds, which have not been affected by the soaring interest rates in the same industry. "The public's concern may be that everyone has misunderstood the way banks manage money. Deposits are still safe enough," said a state-owned banker.
Experts believe that this round of tight funding will only make SMEs borrow higher costs. Mr. Huang, a professional investor in Shenzhen, said that there will be a conduction process in the short term. Most corporate loans will be affected. Capital-intensive and high debt-worthy industries such as real estate are the most sensitive. The areas in which ordinary citizens need to be cautious are risk assets such as the stock market, the property market, and the bond market.