China’s pension gap may lead to serious unemployment
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The financial system is highly vulnerable and risky. In China, on the one hand, because of the unclear scope of government governance, the cost of governance is too high, too much government revenue is spent on the governance system itself, and spending power for public services and social welfare is weakened. On the other hand, there will be two very serious problems in the future: First, the populist tendency of the society, while asking the government to take on more and more benefits, but also want to pay as little as possible, this is for the future government. Expenditure is a test; second, the number of children is severe, the population of 22 to 44 years old is decreasing, the proportion of the elderly population is getting higher and higher, and social security such as pensions started to be established in the mid-1990s, and the future pension gap is huge. And will get bigger and bigger.
Populist welfare and pension gaps are growing, which will increase the tax burden of enterprises and residents, and will transfer the financial to force to issue bonds and expand the deficit. The debt and deficit will be passed on to the financial system for a long time in the future. China's financial system is in a fragile situation, and the possibility of a financial crisis is much higher than the population structure is reasonable, or the problem of aging is lighter than that of China.
Unemployment problems may be more serious. Due to the lack of pensions, it is necessary to extend the working age, extend the time for paying pensions, and reduce the year of receiving pensions, so as to alleviate the deterioration of the pension gap. The national economy has encountered a rebellion: (1) The contraction of the labor force has reduced the pressure on labor supply, and the demand for labor is greater than supply, which in turn makes employment easier. However, the reduction in labor supply has led to a rapid rise in labor wages. In an open economy, a large number of labor-intensive enterprises and industries are transferred abroad, resulting in a reduction in labor jobs. The rise in labor costs and the increase in the cost of labor and wages have led to a decline in the growth of labor-intensive industries and a downward trend in the growth of the national economy. The downturn in economic growth rate, in accordance with Austrian affirmation, has increased the unemployment rate.
(2) Robots cause unemployment pressure. The rise in labor costs has led many companies to use robots to replace workers in smart manufacturing; even some food service industries are using robots instead of waiters; there may be more drone drone systems, etc. instead of couriers. And the driver.
(3) Delayed retirement, the employment of the elderly will definitely affect the employment of young people. Therefore, reducing the population irregularly has caused difficulties in the employment of the population.
(4) Whether the pension is the social insurance premium of the congregation, or the transfer of other government revenues into the old-age pension, or the individual's commercial pension insurance, is part of the cost of products and services. At that time, the shortage of labor makes the labor cost expensive. Too old an aging population also makes the cost of pensions in products and services higher than in other countries, which makes the future competitiveness of the Chinese economy internationally severely weakened.
(The author of this article: Deputy Director and Research Fellow, Institute of International Strategy, CPC Central Party School.)