[Forecast] Polysilicon in the second half of 2016 will be in short supply

November 06 15:59:45, 2024

Abstract The solar industry will go out of the long winter? Oversupply of solar panels, polysilicon (Polysilicon) raw material prices hit a new low in January, but the second half of this year may be reversed, some operators stop production, coupled with limited capacity expansion, supply will be tight at the end of the year, it is expected...
The solar industry will go out of the long winter? The supply of solar panels is over-resourced. The price of polysilicon raw materials has reached a new low in January. However, the situation in the second half of this year may be reversed. Some producers have stopped production, and with limited capacity expansion, supply will be tight at the end of the year, which is expected to push up prices.
According to reports, REC Silicon, the world's fifth-largest silicon wafer producer, will be shut down for five months in Washington, DC, and will resume production in June. The Washington plant has a production capacity of 163,000 tons of polysilicon, accounting for 5% of global supply. The reason for the suspension is the Sino-US trade war.
In 2012, the United States imposed a maximum anti-dumping duty of 250% on China's solar board. China is not willing to show weakness. After two years, it will impose a 57% anti-dumping duty on US polysilicon. Sino-US trade barriers, the ultra-high tax rate has led to the US polysilicon giant REC, Hemlock Semiconductor, unable to enter the world's largest polysilicon market.
According to industry insiders, China is the largest customer of polysilicon in the world, and American companies are rejected. Korean manufacturers are profitable, OCI and Hanwha Chemical can eat Chinese orders. China's demand is strong, the local polysilicon price is higher than Taiwan and other Southeast Asian countries, OCI is rushing to grab the order, and transfer the products shipped to Taiwan to China. The price of polysilicon in the past two weeks has therefore stopped falling.
REC believes that oversupply will be reversed at the end of the year, estimating solar demand in the global end market, 64GW in 2016 and 78GW in 2017. The industry will produce excess labor and will digest excess stocks. When the stocks are exhausted and the polysilicon expansion is quite limited, the supply at the end of the year may be in a tight position, which will help lift the price.

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