In order to stimulate domestic consumer demand and stimulate economic growth, since 2000, the state has implemented the "May 1st", "11th" and Spring Festival holiday system, and it has entered the sixth year. After analyzing and researching, the author found that the long vacation has caused a greater impact on the domestic market, forming a long holiday market with Chinese characteristics. In view of this, the author put forward some immature coping methods and shared them with the investors. The author believes that the long-term market in China's futures market has the following three characteristics: 1. Market prices fluctuate sharply before and after long holidays, and the difficulty of risk control increases the characteristics of the futures trading. It has a rapid response to market information and can release risks in a timely manner. Transfer and disperse. However, the long holiday system has destroyed the above characteristics of futures trading, resulting in a temporary suspension of investment time and losing linkage with the international market. The occurrence of economic events or policies has its abrupt and uncertainties. Futures prices will respond to market information in advance or lag. The resulting cumulative and concentrated outbreak of risks leads to relatively fierce price fluctuations in the market before or after falsification. There has been an abnormal price increase, such as the daily limit. This kind of situation has performed more prominently since 2004, and the risk control of the entire market has become more difficult. Futures exchanges and futures brokerage companies generally resort to false measures to increase futures trading margins to prevent possible market risks. 2. Before and after the long holidays cause the futures market to have a long period of cyclical phenomena such as lightening up, shrinking, decreasing liquidity, or slowing or expanding price fluctuations, the overall market will generally exhibit characteristics such as lighten up, shrinkage, and reduced liquidity, and the market tends to be At the extreme, either the leather is consolidating, the pool is stagnant, or it fluctuates violently. The domestic market has several such cyclical phenomena every year. From the author's statistical data, the copper market in 12 weeks before the 15 long holidays, there are 12 times to lighten up, lighten up the range from 8000 to 30,000 hand range, basically maintained at about 20,000 hands, 1 to 2 after the long vacation The market can basically return to normal within the week. Since long-term investors tend to close their positions to avoid risks, investors failed to return to the market in a timely manner after a long vacation, resulting in a decrease in market liquidity and a decrease in trading volume. Before the holiday, the price volatility slowed down, and after the fake, the price volatility was relatively severe. From the perspective of varieties, the greater the degree of marketization, the more closely related to the international market, the more mature the futures varieties, the greater the risks and opportunities caused by the interruption of transactions due to holidays, such as copper, soybean, soybean meal and other varieties, and wheat, aluminum, The risks of natural rubber and new varieties such as cotton, fuel oil, and corn are relatively small. Third, the actual operation of investors and the risk control increase the difficulty of false premise, the market liquidity is reduced, the uncertainty of price fluctuations is increased, the trading margin is increased, the market short-term opportunities are significantly reduced, the market may occur in advance or lag, Investors are not easy to grasp the situation in time, making the actual operation of the investors and the difficulty of risk control is also significantly increased. Investors are hesitant to take positions and lighten up, making difficult decisions in long and short directions, and balancing trade-offs in risk and return – it is not easy to effectively control risks and hope not to miss the opportunity to obtain lucrative profits. So, how do we deal with the unique long-term market conditions in the Chinese futures market? The author proposes several immature suggestions here. First, rational lighten up, risk control as an investor in the futures market, risk control should always be placed in the front. Throughout the year, there are many market opportunities. Investors, especially the large number of retail investors, do not need to invest their funds in a long-term market similar to gambling. They should rationally reduce their positions before they leave, and they must take a short-sighted holiday and avoid full festivals in order to avoid overjoyed and unhappy. Catch up on life. Second, to strengthen fundamental analysis, adhere to long-term positions, remove short-term contrarian positions Some investors believe that prior to lighten up or exit the market is a more passive, negative, conservative operation method, but the higher the risk, the more income Big, is there any better way to lighten up or exit the market? Judging from the market conditions in recent years, the long vacation only temporarily suspended the market, but it will not change the existing fundamentals of the market. After the long holiday, the market trend has continued in most cases. Therefore, the risk of exposure to the trend is relatively small. The odds of winning are greater. In the oscillation market, the significance of positions is not large, mainly to guard against the market after the fake disk, evolved into a trend market, arbitrage positions is one of the methods; in the trend of the market, the market may be in a breakthrough, relay, climax, the end At different stages, investors should control the size of their positions for different stages. In addition, the current information disclosure system has been relatively transparent and regular. Investors should make prior arrangements for the release of holiday information to make a corresponding impact on potential impacts such as important economic indicators, economic conferences, and agricultural product supply and demand reports. estimate. Third, to minimize short-term trading, full holiday break brings investors not all the trouble, it may be a turning point. Before and after the holiday, the market's liquidity is relatively low. Investors should minimize short-term trading and reduce transaction costs. During the holidays, while taking full advantage of the rest of the holiday season, we should carefully summarize the market conditions of the preceding period and our investment situation, retain successful experiences, learn lessons from failure, and pay close attention to major changes in domestic and foreign markets during the holidays. Fake investment formulates a more thorough plan. For futures investors, the more fully prepared, the greater the possibility of profitability. I believe that with the above-mentioned knowledge and preparations, you will surely be able to face and cope with the upcoming Spring Festival holiday and have a detailed, happy and safe Spring Festival.
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