The 1700th column of the Friday, November 5th, 2004 prompts: The "Risk Warning" section of this publication aims to describe the risk of long and short positions through the icon of the star flag. It can be used as a reference for investors when dealing with open positions. In actual operation, investors need to take specific control based on their own short-medium-term trading strategies and different types of fluctuation characteristics. The specific star classification criteria are as follows: ★ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be less than 2%. ★ ★ The reverse run range of newer closing price may be greater than 2%. ★★★ The period price is reversed from the new closing. The rate may be greater than 3%. ★★★★ The reverse running range of newer closing prices may be greater than 4%. ★★★★★ The reverse running range of newer closing prices may be greater than 5%. Soybean and soybean meal risk warning: Bulls risk : ★★★ Short-term risk: ★ Tips before the market: Orient: CBOT soybeans closed at 506 cents per bushel, down 12.5 cents, affected by negative export sales reports, the US Department of Agriculture announced a week ending on October 28. Export sales report. Weekly US 2004-05 market year (since September 1) net sales of 486,300 tons of soybeans, far below the market forecast of 80-100 million tons range. Facing the sharp drop in export data, if the United States is harvesting huge output, if the export demand is low, it will put pressure on the CBOT price. The U.S. Department of Agriculture will publish a new monthly report next Friday. Most analysts now believe that the US soybean production forecast for this report will be raised from last month. It is reported that the forecast of the American Informa (Sparks) company is 31.3 bushels, and the 3.107 billion bushels predicted by the company last month coincide with the US Department of Agriculture’s report figures. The technical pattern shows that it is still in a technically weak state. Domestic Soybeans fell slightly yesterday, 501 contracts closed at 2,623 yuan / ton, down 13 far. The fundamentals are relatively calm and will mainly follow the fluctuation of the US soybean in the near future. Jiang Gan: CBOT soybeans fell sharply on Thursday. Under the new speculative selling pressure, most contracts hit a new low. The November contract fell 15.2 cents to close at 509 cents. The January contract fell by 12.5 cents to 506 cents. The US Department of Agriculture announced on Thursday that US exporters exported 486,300 tons of soybeans last week, which was far below the estimated 95-1.2 million tons. The grain analysis agency predicts that when the U.S. government releases the crop report on November 12, the forecast for U.S. soybean production will be further raised. The higher estimate of soybean production by private sector agencies this week was 3.3 billion bushels, well above the 3.107 billion bushels forecast by the government in October. Soybeans closed lower on Thursday overnight under the influence of CBOT soybeans, and technology shows that prices are still falling. We suggest to hold an empty position with a limit of 2550. Overseas express delivery: US time on Thursday, November 4th, CBOT soybean major monthly contract was affected by the negative export sales report opened lower 2-3 cents, the first half of the main month's January contract supported by the previous low 513 1/2 cents The weak shocks consolidated, and after the intraday breakout, they began to decline steadily. The stock market dipped and ended the session with a fall of 9-14 cents. November contract opened 522 1/4 cents higher, 525 cents lower, 509 cents lower, closing 509 1/2 cents; down 14 3/4 cents; January contract opened 516 cents higher 518 3/4 cents, down 505 1/2 cents, closing 506 1/4 cents, down 12 1/4 cents. The bad fundamental news triggered the technical selling of funds is the main reason for the decline of CBOT soybeans today. The January price is now pushing through the 513 1/2 cents, which is the contract low point on October 18, and is now steadily moving towards the 500-cent mark. Export sales report released by the US Department of Agriculture before the market showed that the net sales of US soybean exports during the week ended October 28 were 483,600 tons, well below market expectations of 8.0 million to 100,000 tons, which was 920,500 tons more than last week and last year. In the same period, the 1.624 million tons all fell sharply. During the week, as a major buyer of US soybeans, China purchased a total of 231,100 tons, but 166,000 tons were transferred from anonymous buyers. Under normal circumstances, this week and next week are the two weeks that American Soybeans have been exporting more than a year, and the sharp drop in sales today is a surprise to everyone. In the face of this year’s huge output of US soybean record, if the export demand can no longer be boosted, the further fall in CBOT price will become a matter of course. In addition, there are market rumors on the day that China has already washed up the two vessels recently purchased US soybeans. In the US soybean spot market, as farmers reluctant sellers and inland freight rates rose sharply, Thursday morning US Gulf premium ship soybean yields reached 70 cents per bushel in the first half of November, but then fell sharply by 10 cents. 60 cents per bushel, down 2 cents from the previous day. The U.S. Department of Agriculture will publish a new monthly report next Friday. Most analysts now believe that the US soybean production forecast for this report will be raised from last month. It is reported that the forecast of the American Informa (Sparks) company is 31.3 bushels, and the 3.107 billion bushels predicted by the company last month coincided with the US Department of Agriculture’s report figures, which also aroused market concern. In South America, the current weather conditions in the main soybean producing areas continue to be satisfactory. During the weekend, favorable rains will occur in the central and western regions of Brazil and northern Argentina. It is estimated that the current soybean planting in Brazil has been completed 30%, and the progress of planting soybeans in Argentina should be between 15-20%. The total volume of CBOT soybeans was approximately 64,000 for the whole day; the fund sold approximately 6,000 pieces of the net on that day, and it is expected that there will be 50,000 short-lists. Copper and aluminum risk warning: Bulls risk: ★ Short-term risk: ★ Tips before the market: Orient: Copper: Driven by the decline in the US dollar's decline in oil prices, yesterday's copper in LME rose again in March showing a turbulent upward trend, compared to a closing price of US$2910/ton. Last trading day rose 25 US dollars / ton, fluctuations in the range of 2928.5 ~ 2870 US dollars / ton. In terms of fundamentals, the strike that may be held on May 5 by the copper miners of Chile’s El Abra Company may also provide some support to the market, but this strike can only be seen as a short-term effect and has no significant significance to the trend of copper prices. On the contrary, yesterday's disk shows that manufacturers sold more. From a technical point of view, LME copper prices broke through the 20-day moving average and rushed into the short-term resistance level yesterday, and the pressure above it is also relatively large. The domestic Shanghai copper exhibited a trend of a sharp decline yesterday. The Far-month contract fell after reaching a recent high, and the domestic spot price declined by RMB 30,850~31,000/t yesterday. Aluminium: LME March aluminum also showed slight fluctuations yesterday, and the closing price closed above 1800 US dollars again. Yesterday, LME aluminum stocks fell by 400 tons, providing some support for aluminum prices. The domestic Shanghai aluminum exhibited a trend of opening higher and lowering yesterday, and the trend was significantly weaker than the copper price. This has a great relationship with the fundamentals of the two. However, from the perspective of the production cost of aluminum ingots, the space under the aluminum price is not too large. , It is expected that the aluminum price will show a turbulent trend in the near future. Yesterday, the domestic spot price was 15980~16040 yuan/ton. Ma Hongqing: The LME copper price hit another recent high on Thursday. The execution price of the option at 2850 means that more short positions have entered the stop loss. The PHI value indicates that the futures price is still rising in the market. The price may have further upside potential, but the technology The pressure level is on the 2930/2950 area, and domestic spot copper is under pressure in 32000. Therefore, it is very important for Shanghai copper to maintain the Yangxian pattern in the nearer trading day. Once the LME futures price rises, Shanghai Copper maintains. The pattern of going high and low means that the top position will not be far. Shanghai Copper CU502 is expected to test the pressure level of 27200 on Friday. Overseas Express: LME Market Report: London, November 4 news: The London Metal Exchange (LME) base metal closed above resistance at $2,900 on Thursday, as the US dollar weakened after the election triggered fund buying emerged. One trader said The US dollar's drop against the euro triggered some fund buying, followed by some short covering, but after a large amount of losses last month, the current market sentiment is cautious. We have to wait and see that the Asian market is returning 3,000 copper. How did it react? The US dollar approached the record low against the euro on Thursday, as lingering doubts about the US’s current account deficit continued to linger, and investors started selling dollars again. Traders said that as the US presidential election came to a close, low interest rates , high oil prices and doubts about the pace of economic growth also dragged down the US dollar. According to Reuters data, the euro/dollar hit a high near 1.2897, approaching a high of around 1.2927 set in February. Greenwich time 1735, euro/US dollar about Reported at 1.2860 U.S. dollars, up about 0.5% on the same day. Three-month copper closed at 39 U.S. dollars at 2,915 U.S. dollars. Hedge fund and Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) buying triggered a period of copper gains. Three-month aluminum rose by 10 U.S. dollars to each Ton 1,812 The previous gains were once greater, but the gains were curtailed by profit-taking. Three-month lead rose from 887 to 915 US dollars. Three-month zinc increased by 35 US dollars to 1,080. Three-month nickel is subject to technical buying. Drive, boosted by US$800 to 14,425. COMEX Copper Market Report: NEW YORK, November 4: Copper futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) closed higher on Thursday. Traders said buying from commodity investment funds and a weaker dollar helped break the market. Technical resistance. Initial buying drove the market to rise above the level of resistance of 1.3350-1.3400 USD, which is a technical breakthrough. Metal trading director of Alaron Trading stated that the indicator's December settlement price rose 1.90 cents to US$1.3490 per lb. intraday. It fluctuated between 1.3270-1.3580. In November, it rose about 2.10 cents to end at 1.3610 US dollars per pound. The volume was estimated at 9,000 lots. Traders said that the news that a copper mine in Chile will start a strike as planned also constitutes a price for copper. Support. Natural rubber risk warning: Bulls risk: ★ Short-term risk: ★ Overseas express delivery: Tokyo November 4 news: Thursday Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) rubber prices rose due to supply shortage support concerns, but the transaction price Still in the district In the volatility as traders are waiting for the market price can break through the key 140 yen level. The April 2005 contract settled at 139.4 yen per kilogram, which was an increase of 0.9 yen from Tuesday's price, and fluctuate within the range of 138.7 yen to 139.6 yen during the session. TOCOM is closed on Wednesday for a public holiday. The other contracts ended higher at 0.7 yen to 1.2 yen. A Tokyo middleman said: "At this stage of the year, there is a lot of rainfall in the rubber-producing area, but we have heard that this year's rainfall is higher than in previous years." Market participants said that the reelection of US President Bush may not only support The natural rubber market may also put pressure on the natural rubber market. The market speculates that the Bush administration will tolerate a weaker dollar to reduce the US trade deficit and may exert downward pressure on Jiao City. However, Bush’s victory was generally seen by the oil market as bullish, as it may continue to increase the US’s strategic oil reserve. The market often sees rising crude oil prices as a support factor for the Jiao City, as high oil prices may shift the demand for synthetic rubber to natural rubber. The middleman said that if the TOCOM rubber price reaches 140 yen, 140 yen will become the next support for TOCOM rubber. The exporters in Thailand stated that the rainfall in the natural rubber producing areas in southern Thailand is still heavy this week, which has seriously affected the tapping. The Meteorological Department stated that in the next few weeks, other rubber-producing areas are also facing the threat of flooding. The U.S. light crude oil price remained about US$50/barrel and the price had risen to US$50.50. At 0645 GMT, the US dollar was at 106.23/6.28 yen against the Japanese yen, basically unchanged from the 106.20 yen in late New York. The volume of TOCOM rubber Thursday was estimated at 4,553 contracts, down from 9,337 lots Tuesday. As of Thursday's close, the open interest was 29,355 contracts, compared with 29,108 contracts Monday. Cotton risk warning: Bullish risk: ★ Short bear risk: ★ Tips before the plate: Oriental: US cotton showed a downward trend again yesterday, compared to a closing price of 43.35 cents/lb, down 1.25 cents/lb from the previous day. . Domestic Zheng Cotton showed a trend of a sharp decline yesterday, the main 501 contract closed at 12,305 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day fell 45 yuan / ton. Spot market: The Cncotton A Index 11608 is up 57 points from the previous day. The Cncotton B Index is 10,780. Compared with the previous day, 54. Pakistan's cotton production is expected to climb to a new high this year due to the Pakistani government's efforts to promote the importance of pest control and increase cotton plantings. Judging from the growth of cotton in Punjab and Sindh, the government’s stated goals are likely to be achieved and may even be surpassed. In September, Australia exported 43,000 tons of cotton. The main buyers are: Indonesia (14,400 tons), China (6975 tons), South Korea (6431 tons), Thailand (5496 tons) and Japan (4841 tons). In the August-September period, total exports were 94,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%. China has become the second largest buyer of Australian cotton. In 2003/04, Australia exported 90,000 tons of cotton to China, accounting for 19.22% of all exports. On the domestic fundamentals, according to the cotton spot price quoted by China CottonNet in major domestic regions, the average price of cotton in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang has risen to varying degrees in recent days, and the average purchase price of seed cotton in all areas is 2.17 yuan/kg. Compared with the third day, it rose by 0.01 yuan/kg, according to 36.18% of clothing, 0.56 yuan/kg of cotton seed, equivalent to China's cotton purchase price index was 10306 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 6 yuan/ton, but the transaction was relatively light. Yesterday Zheng cotton appeared in the trend of highs and lows, and there was a dive lately. The possibility of bottoming out is not ruled out in the near future. However, due to the purchase price of the State Reserve Cotton of RMB 11,500/ton, it also indicates the bottom of the recent cotton price. Overseas Express: New York, November 4: New York Commodity Exchange (NYBOT) cotton futures closed lower on speculative and options-related selling Thursday, and poor technical indicators sent the market lower before the weekend. The monthly contract ended 1.21 cents lower at 43.37 cents per pound, trading in a range of 43.10-44.58 cents. The March contract fell 1.06 cents to 43 cents a pound. The rest of the monthly futures contracts closed lower by 0.50 to 1.50 cents. An analyst at Swiss Financial Services stated that "the market was mainly suppressed by related options." The estimated trading volume was 19,000 lots, higher than Wednesday's 15,140 contracts. The open interest as of November 3 decreased by 223. Hand to 84,600. Fuel Oil Risk Warning: Bulls risk: ★ Short-term risk: ★ Tips before the plate: Oriental: NYMEX crude oil futures November contract closed at 48.82 US dollars / barrel, down 2.06 US dollars, by technical selling and natural gas inventory set a record level, etc. Factors affect. On the other hand, it can also be interpreted as the fall of Bush’s reappointment. Crude oil prices are still expected to bottom out. The main support position for the December contract is 46 to 47 US dollars per barrel. Singapore's fuel oil prices fell slightly on Thursday. The spot price of 180 CST fuel oil closed at US$205.75 per ton, a decrease of US$0.25 from the previous trading day. Trading volume was light. It is expected that the domestic fuel oil futures price will still seek low support, but the decline is subject to the current price difference. Overseas Express: New York, November 4 news: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures tumbled 4% on Thursday, fell below 49 US dollars a barrel, subject to technical selling and natural gas inventory hit a record level and other factors suppress. Oil prices on Wednesday After the presidential election dust settled, it rose sharply. Today's intraday low of $48.75 was also the lower level since September 29 hitting a low of 48.40. NYMEX December crude oil futures fell $2.06, or 4.05%, to settle at $48.82. The trading range is 48.75-50.95. This is the settlement price fell below $49.00 for the first time since September 27. The US Energy Information Association (EIA) announced on Thursday that the inventory of natural gas shows that the total domestic natural gas inventory increased last week. 44 billion cubic feet to 3.293 trillion cubic feet. A record high of 3.254 trillion cubic feet set in November 2001 was overshadowed. December heating oil futures settled down 5.17 cents to $1.3721 per gallon. The trading range of 1.3700-1.4320.12 month gasoline futures settlement price closed down 5.03 cents to 1.2774 US dollars per gallon. The trading range was 1.2760-1.3280. Corn risk warning: Bulls risk: ★ Short risk: ★ Overseas Delivery: November 4 US time on Thursday, CBOT corn continues to steadily downward and finally relatively low at the close, the contract fell between 1-1 1/4 cents. The December contract opened 199 cents, a 199 1/4 cents higher and 197 1/4 cents lower, closing 197 1/2 cents lower by 1 1/2 cents. Today, CBOT corn continues its steady downward trend for the past week, with a cumulative fall of 10 cents since last Friday. December corn's lower point today is only 1/4 cents from the October 19 contract low of 197 cents. The current huge U.S. corn production and new corn sales pressure are still lingering in the market. Although the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced a good corn export sales figure and the U.S. dollar index hit a new low in nine years, traders are still reluctant to stay at current prices. Enter the field to do more. The pre-market export sales report showed that the US corn net sale was 1.5038 million tons in the week ending October 28, which was higher than the market forecast of 100-120 tons, which was an increase of 38% from the previous week, and this was the market's annual high. In terms of weather, it is expected that the United States corn belt will be dominated by fine weather in the next five days, and crop harvesting is expected to accelerate. Analysts said that the current December price has reached the bottom of the previous period, the possibility of a breakthrough on Friday is more likely, but does not rule out the possibility of short-term profit-taking short-term weekend coverings. In the long run, CBOT corn will still maintain its downward trend. The total trading volume of CBOT corn futures throughout the day was approximately 80,000; the Fund basically performed bilateral transactions on that day and is expected to still hold approximately 51,000 corn futures net shorts. (Construction certificate futures)