2012 global photovoltaic industry mid-year summary
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After years of embarrassment and exaggeration, the global PV industry in the first half of 2012 is still suffering from oversupply and potential containment. Overview of the global PV environment, downstream suppliers are in trouble, affected by overcapacity worldwide, the photovoltaic industry manufacturing sector has stagnated in the past six months; the long-standing financial crisis has led most countries to cut domestic project funds and subsidies Protectionism such as local ingredient requirements and import tariffs is popular. In fact, according to the latest report released by market research organization GTMResearch, the global PV module production capacity will reach 59GW this year, while the market demand is only 30GW. GTM pointed out that oversupply has caused losses to the industry, causing several European and American solar companies to go bankrupt because they did not catch up with the 50% decline in solar panel prices. At present, the price of photovoltaic modules is maintained at 0.70-0.85 US dollars / watt, the price of photovoltaic modules will continue to decline, and is expected to fall to 0.45 US dollars / watt by 2015. However, even in this bleak market, it is not difficult to find some bright spots. For example, the Australian carbon tax will take effect on July 1, which will greatly promote the use of renewable energy; large-scale capital in regional, state and transnational areas. injection. In addition, some developed countries also welcome the development of solar energy. For example, Japan’s new feed-in tariff subsidy mechanism was implemented on July 1 and provides a subsidy of 42 yen per kWh for solar energy for a period of 20 years. In addition, Saudi Arabia has the capital and ambition to develop solar energy. Countries have cut PV subsidies in the first half of 2012. Global debts have increased substantially, and generous funds and subsidies for new energy technologies have been slimmed down. On the day before the New Year, the US Congress blocked the extension of the 1603 Act, meaning that as long as the applicants can start work before December 31, 2011 and complete on December 31, 2016, they will still receive a 30% tax. Relief. At the same time, the Spanish government announced on January 28 that it would completely suspend the subsidy for new renewable energy projects. Israel lowered the feed-in tariff subsidy by 23%, effective from January 1; on February 1, Greece lowered the feed-in tariff subsidy 12.4. %; South Korea replaced the feed-in tariff subsidy with renewable energy portfolio standards; on March 1, Switzerland cut 18% of PV subsidies; Germany lowered FiT subsidies and canceled funds for photovoltaic power plants above 10MW, with effect from April 1 In July, Bulgaria cut its PV subsidies by 50%; Italy's Fifth Energy Act is expected to take effect in September. However, looking at the next level of the food chain, at the state level in the United States, in July California passed a FiT subsidy bill for the poor and vulnerable. This is also the first time in North America to promote the equal use of renewable energy for the poor through the feed-in tariff subsidy for poverty advocates. The New Jersey Senate and the State Assembly agreed to pass the Solar Resurrection Act (A-2966), voting for replacement and revision. The status of New Jersey solar energy is heavily influenced by political and renewable energy policies, rather than solar resources itself, pointing out that the National Solar Credit (SREC) market offers a large number of installation projects. In the short term, the market cannot be quickly rescued from oversupply. However, the amount of installed projects will slow down in the second half of 2012, but this legislation means that growth will be seen in 2013. Similarly, Connecticut is implementing a zero-emission renewable energy credit program that will receive a ZREC per megawatt of electricity and a maximum of $350 for a 1 MW system. Protectionist policies have set up protectionist barriers in many regions because profits have come to unprecedented levels of low-level, fierce project competition and the growing difficulty in obtaining funds. On April 6 this year, the Ontario Power Authority published a draft of microFiT and FiT2.0, as well as specific implementation provisions for the revised feed-in tariff. The Ontario government plans to cut feed-in tariffs by 31.5%, and subsidies for rooftop systems and ground-mounted systems will be $0.549 and $0.445, respectively. In addition, solar companies that want to receive price guarantees and grid access from the feed-in tariff plan must ensure that 60% of the equipment used to produce energy comes from Ontario, including solar panels and related services. Ontario is not the first region to include “domestic ingredient requirementsâ€. At least four countries (China, France, India and Italy) have adopted local ingredient requirements for renewable energy more or less in the past few years. In May, two US senators announced plans to introduce local ingredient requirements to prevent Chinese PV manufacturers from using the US 30% tax credit. Japan and the European Union have expressed their dissatisfaction with the World Trade Organization on the on-grid tariffs in Ontario, Canada, accusing them of discriminating against global trading partners and giving preferential measures to local suppliers. In addition, the industry is not lacking in talks, there have been several lawsuits against Chinese solar manufacturers, the first US solar manufacturer, now to the EU. In both cases, SolarWorldAG has always been the initiator, except that the former is its US subsidiary and the latter is in person. In the United States, there are six other manufacturers besides Solarworld USA. The US Department of Commerce has ruled to impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties on all solar products from China. The US government will soon announce the final ruling. The EU investigation will be limited to anti-dumping and has not yet been accepted. In response, China has threatened to take similar countermeasures. A dominant let us look at the case of hardware. This year, crystalline silicon is still the most powerful technology. High-end single crystal products have a maximum conversion efficiency of 22%, but the production cost is too expensive. Compared with polysilicon, it is more difficult to profit, and the latter has always occupied a high market share. Supporters of crystalline silicon are being plagued by oversupply, both raw and finished. Some suppliers have filed for bankruptcy. The price of polysilicon imported from the United States is so low. It is said that Chinese suppliers such as GCL-Poly and Daxin Energy have filed a trade lawsuit with the Ministry of Commerce to seek taxation on US silicon imports. However, the claims filed by polysilicon companies have been strongly opposed by domestic solar manufacturers, who can only benefit by purchasing low-cost crystalline silicon raw materials. This may be the first time that China's labor and production costs have failed to protect its manufacturers from financial pain. Even US tariffs cannot substantially affect China's market momentum. In the second half of 2012, there will be about 5 GW of demand in China's domestic market, which will greatly ease the pressure on Chinese crystalline silicon manufacturers in the US market. In addition, the price of first-class Chinese products in the US market is higher than that in Europe, indicating that Chinese manufacturers may prefer to partially abandon the US market and sell products in Europe, which also exacerbates price competition here. RenewableAnalytics analyst Dirk Morbitzer said: "At present, the photovoltaic industry is staged a real massacre. The market maintains a clear overcapacity and puts downward pressure on prices." The company has already felt the pain. In April, German PV company Q-Cells filed for bankruptcy and became a victim of the ruthless PV market. In June, Schott Solar AG of Germany announced that due to the “violent deterioration†of the PV market, the company will stop all production of crystalline silicon products. In addition, a large number of European and American solar companies were forced to file for bankruptcy, confirming that the solar industry is undergoing integration. In general, thin film batteries have lower efficiency and lower production costs than crystalline silicon. This technology is a rising star in the solar industry, but it has never happened before this year. As the price of traditional PV modules plummeted, film companies found themselves facing increasing pressure to increase conversion efficiency and reduce manufacturing costs in order to remain competitive. On July 4, the media reported that General Electric (GE) has suspended construction work that is considered to be the largest cadmium telluride thin film solar plant in the United States. In April 2011, GE announced the construction of a film factory with a capacity of 400MW after the acquisition of PrimestarSolar. The project will now be delayed for at least 18 months. At the same time, FirstSolar, the world's top 10 and largest film module manufacturer, was also experiencing its own difficulties. FirstSolar's non-GAAP loss for the first quarter was $449 million, or $5.20 per share. The company also announced the formation of a new management team, James Hughes as CEO, RaffiGarabedian as CTO. Last month, FirstSolar said it would maintain operations at its German plant, but only until the end of the year. Thereafter, the plant will be permanently closed. Also in June, AboundSolar, a manufacturer of cadmium telluride thin film modules that received a $400 million loan guarantee from the US Department of Energy, announced that it would file for bankruptcy. At the same time, NovaSolar filed for bankruptcy under Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Law. However, one company seems to have found the "secret." On June 12, CalyxoGmbH revealed that it will increase the production capacity of cadmium telluride thin film photovoltaic modules. The company said it will increase production from 25MW to 80MW through the second production line by the end of this year. CalyxoGmbH stated in an official statement: “CdTe technology has unlimited potential to reduce solar power costs. Thin-film solar cells are low-cost and can convert solar energy into electricity in bad weather conditions. Efficient operation on a roof that is not facing south.†Overview of the PV project Although the market is full of worries, in the first half of 2012, a large number of PV projects were signed, developed or delivered, and the installation department of the PV industry has been busy. In Chile, China's renewable energy company Tianhua Sunshine will invest US$900 million to develop a 300MW PV power plant project. The company plans to build a 2MW pilot project this year, followed by the construction of a 18MW ground photovoltaic power plant. In the next 18 months, a 150MW PV power plant project will be built "at least". In June, Toshiba announced that it plans to build a solar power plant with a capacity of 100MW in MinamiSoma. The electronics giant will invest 30 billion yen and is expected to start construction this year and be completed in 2014. In January 2012, the California Public Utilities Commission approved five renewable energy contracts with a total installed capacity of 1,088 MW. Three of the agreements were signed with Southern California Edison and SolarStar California, including Quinto, AVSPI and II PV projects with a total installed capacity of 711 MW. The Quinto project is expected to begin generating electricity by the end of 2014, while the latter two projects will be operational in October 2016. In June, the US federal agency approved the development of a 350 MW solar power plant in the Indian Reservation, the first commercial solar power project built on tribal land. The electricity generated by the project is expected to supply 100,000 families. At the national level, the proportion of solar power generation in Germany increased significantly in the first half of 2012. German solar power producers once again set a new world record. In the first half of 2012, a total of 14.7 TWh of electricity was input to the grid, accounting for 4.5% of the total electricity production during the same period, meeting 10%-50% of the peak daily electricity demand. What is the biggest challenge facing the major challenge of progress and players in the eyes of the photovoltaic industry is GoldenGateSolarTech SabenaSuri CEO, he said:?.. "The greatest progress is made in China and a large number of solar panels taxation manufacturers closed their doors Currently, the market is still oversupply manufacturing Merchants are entering the solar project financing sector. In the end, everyone is looking for emerging markets that can be financed, such as Saudi Arabia.†Jack Rivkin, board member of the World Policy Institute, said: “I think the most positive thing in the first half of the year was energy storage technology. Development, which will contribute to the development of indirect technology; and the reduction in the application of nuclear technology, which will strengthen the demand for solar energy. On the other hand, the hydraulic rupture method has made great progress in technology, which will accelerate humans to hydrocarbons. The acquisition makes solar energy more difficult to stand on the heel. Overall, it is a big disadvantage to the development of the solar industry.†Rosie Pidcock, president of the 2011 International Student Energy Summit, said: “Although there have been unrest factors in the manufacturing industry of the photovoltaic industry, Solar photovoltaic power generation capacity look is still growing. There is no doubt that, although manufacturers are under downward pressure on prices, but on the cost of solar energy compared with fossil fuels more competitive but it is an indisputable fact. "