2016 polyolefin market presents six characteristics

First, coal high pressure / random copolymerization

In terms of polyethylene , the focus of domestic attention in 2016 is that LDPE has expanded. In this year, domestic LDPE production equipment is concentrated in coal-based LDPE. After the domestic coal-to-olefins plant has entered the domestic LLDPE/HDPE market, it has been turbulent in the LDPE market. Its capacity growth is in addition to Shenhua Yulin, which was put into operation in December 2015. In addition, Shenhua Xinjiang has a 270,000 tons/year installation and Zhongtian Hechuang has a capacity of 370,000 tons/year. The Zhongtian Hechuang high-pressure production schedule is scheduled to be postponed until 2017.

In terms of polypropylene, in addition to rapid growth in production capacity, coal-to-olefin production products began to engage in random copolymerization. In July, the company extended the production of PPR pipe material T-4401 to the market; in November, Shenhua Ning coal random copolymer polypropylene 3240NC was successfully launched.

In the future, with the development of technology and the maturity of new product research and development technologies, coal-to-olefin products will develop in the direction of high-end products.

Second, the reduction of polyolefin imports

With the increase in domestic polyolefin production capacity and output, the domestic self-sufficiency rate of polyolefins has increased, and the total import volume has been reduced.

In terms of polyethylene, the reduction of domestic imports is mainly concentrated in high pressure and linearity. The low pressure is supported by the difference in the quality of imported goods and the total domestic demand, and its import volume still maintains growth. From the statistical data, as of September 2016, domestic LDPE imports decreased by 94,400 tons, a decrease of 8.02%; LLDPE imports decreased by 84,500 tons, a decrease of 4.36%; HDPE imports increased by 100,700 tons, an increase 2.63%.

In terms of polypropylene, the increase in production capacity is more obvious, and the newly added domestic production capacity basically involves homogenous products that are easier to produce. The domestic self-sufficiency rate of clustered polypropylene is significantly improved, while the import volume is significantly reduced, but the block copolymerization is also reduced, but reduced. The amount is small, although the import volume of other copolymers has increased, but the total proportion of each species is small. According to statistics, as of September 2016, the total domestic aggregate imports decreased by 420,200 tons, a decrease of 16.27%; the total domestic imports of block copolymers decreased by 1.62 million tons, a decrease of 4.36%; The volume increased by 12,000 tons year-on-year, an increase of 10.00%.

Third, the increase in polyolefin exports

With the intensification of competition in domestic polyolefins, coupled with factors such as exchange rate and inner jacket profit, the domestic polyolefin industry exports increased.

In terms of polyethylene, as of September 2016, the total domestic LDPE export volume increased by 11,500 tons, an increase of 29.15%; the total export volume of LLDPE increased by 0.78 million tons, an increase of 19.75%; the total export volume of HDPE increased by 0.57 million tons, an increase. 5.38%; despite the significant increase in export growth, due to the small domestic export base of polyethylene, the actual export growth rate is limited.

In terms of polypropylene, as of September 2016, the total domestic export volume increased by 77,100 tons, an increase of 66.01%; the total export volume of block copolymers increased by 0.11 million tons, an increase of 5.91%; the total amount of other copolymerized exports increased by 0.105. Ten thousand tons, an increase of 13.73%; the export volume of polypropylene homopolymer products increased significantly, and its main export direction is in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and the Americas.

Fourth, the coal-oil-to-olefins price gap narrows

Crude oil prices continue to operate at low levels, while coal is subject to high price reductions on the supply side of the country. The profit advantage of domestic coal-to-olefins is no longer obvious. With the promotion of domestic coal-to-olefins in recent years, the domestic market price of coal-to-oil polyolefins is also Significantly narrowing, taking polyethylene as an example, in 2015, the oil-coal LLDPE mainstream price difference was 100-300 yuan/ton, while the 2016 oil-coal LLDPE mainstream price difference was 0-50 yuan/ton, and even appeared many times. Negative difference.

5. The impact of oil prices on marginalization

2016 polyolefin market presents six characteristics

As can be seen from the figure, crude oil prices are at a high level in 2013-2014, and their price trends are basically in line with the trend of polyolefins. In 2015, oil prices continued to run at a low level after the cliff-type decline, polyolefin profits increased, and price trends were weakened by oil prices. For example, in polyethylene, the correlation coefficient between crude oil and LLDPE in 2014 was 0.891. In 2016, the correlation coefficient between the two was reduced to 0.783. In 2016, the correlation coefficient between the two was only 0.096.

2016 polyolefin market presents six characteristics

Sixth, the transportation link has become a concern

In recent years, coal-to-olefin plants have been put into production in many years. The production capacity of coal-to-olefins is concentrated in the northwest region. The main consumption areas of polyolefins are in North China, East China and South China. With the increase of production capacity in the Northwest, the transportation sector has become another concern in the industry. The focus, especially after September 21, 2016, was officially implemented with the “Special Action Plan for Regulating Over-the-counter Overloading of Highway Trucks”. Domestic transportation is tight, and logistics links have become another focus of attention in the industry.