Overcapacity overlaps raw materials, BOPET prices have been adjusted for five years

Thanks to the rapid development of the downstream industry, the apparent consumption of BOPET film in China is rising. At the same time, benefiting from the continuous increase in crude oil during the same period, raw material prices have risen. The price of BOPET film reached its peak in recent years around 2010, with a maximum of 43,000 yuan/ton and a gross profit margin of over 30%. The high degree of prosperity has enabled the industry to enter a period of rapid expansion of production capacity since 2010, which has led to a rapid deterioration of the supply and demand pattern of the industry, accelerating overcapacity and homogenization competition, and the price of BOPET film has also rapidly declined, falling into a long-term downturn. At present, the market price of BOPET film has been in the bottom area in recent years.

Industry capacity expansion is over, BOPET will not be added in the next 3 years

There is no new industry boom in the industry's production capacity, and the industry's willingness to expand production is insufficient. BOPET film product prices and gross profit continued to decline after experiencing a record high in 2010 and are now in a historical position. At present, the operating rate of major domestic manufacturers is around 75%, and there is no clear intention to expand production.

We believe that in the context of the industry's sluggish economy, there is no intention to expand production in the short-term industry. Considering the construction period of BOPET film production capacity of about 3 years, it can be reasonably expected that there will be no new increase in the industry in the next 3-4 years. Capacity is put.

Downstream demand grows steadily

As the most important downstream demand industry for polyester films, the continued boom in the packaging industry will provide rigid demand for polyester films. At the same time, BOPET film is cost-effective and has an alternative advantage over other plastic films. The market share of BOPET film in the field of plastic packaging will expand in the future.