In 2012, the world economy struggled in the wind and rain.
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Looking ahead to the world economic outlook in 2013, we have seen a glimmer of light in the chilly winds in an intricate and volatile environment. Although the slow growth of the world economy will become the norm in the future, the pace of global economic recovery is expected to accelerate next year, and growth expectations are cautiously optimistic.
Looking back at 2012, the world economic situation mainly presents the following characteristics: the pace of recovery in developed countries is heavy and the growth rate is sluggish; the growth rate of emerging economies is generally slowing down; the growth rate of international trade is obviously declining, disputes are frequent; the prices of bulk commodities are dramatically fluctuating. The developed economies have further released their liquidity, and the international financial market has been ups and downs.
Looking back at 2012, the global economy continued its downward trend in 2011, and the economic recovery faltered and the challenge exceeded expectations. International agencies such as the United Nations, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have had to cut global economic growth expectations several times. In October 2011, the IMF predicted that the global economic growth in 2012 will be 4%, and the world GDP will reach 73.7 trillion US dollars. However, after one year, the IMF will reduce the global economic growth rate to 3.3% in 2012, and the world economy will be reduced to 712,800. One hundred million U.S. dollars. This growth rate is much lower than the 5.1% growth rate in 2010, which is not as good as 3.8% in 2011. It is the third lowest growth rate in 2008 and 2009 after nearly 10 years. The global 7 billion people have worked for a year, and the overall economy has only increased by $1.3 trillion. The sustained slowdown in economic growth has caused countries and regions around the world to face serious employment problems and debt problems, increased trade disputes, and increased commodity prices and financial market turmoil.
Specifically, the world economic situation in 2012 mainly presents the following characteristics:
The pace of recovery in developed countries is heavy and the growth rate is sluggish. According to the latest forecast of the IMF, the overall GDP growth of developed economies in 2012 was 1.3%, including 2.2% in the US and 2.2% in Japan, showing a trend of rebounding. The Eurozone-0.4% is in a recession; 1.5% in other advanced economies. Not only is it far below the growth level of developing countries, but also fails to reach the world average (3.3%). Overall, the settlement of the European debt crisis will take time, resulting in a long-term recession in the Eurozone economy, which has impacted global market confidence and the world's export market has been sluggish. Coupled with the general economic downturn and deep structural problems, the high unemployment rate in developed economies has become a chronic disease. Various data show that the economic and financial difficulties in Europe and the United States in 2012 dragged down the recovery of the global economy.
The growth rate of emerging economies has generally slowed down. In the past 10 years, emerging economies have been the fastest growing in the global economic landscape, especially in the international financial crisis since 2008, and have played a role as the “new engine†of the world economy, and have become an important supporting force for the global economy to emerge from the recession. However, in the past two years, this most beautiful landscape in the world economy has been inferior. According to the IMF's October 2012 report, the growth rate of GDP in emerging economies fell from an average of 7.4% in 2010 to 6.2% in 2011, and further fell to 5.3% in 2012, down two percentage points in two years. In particular, the growth rate of the BRICS countries has generally slowed down. The growth rates of China, India, Brazil, Russia and South Africa are expected to be 7.8%, 4.9%, 1.5%, 3.7% and 2.6% respectively. In 2012, China's economic growth rate has been the slowest since the beginning of the 21st century. India's GDP growth rate is also the lowest in nearly 10 years. The GDP growth rate of Brazil, Russia and South Africa has reached a new low since 2009. The main reason for the slowdown in the emerging market economy was the impact of the European debt crisis and the US economic downturn. The sharp drop in external demand led to the obstruction of exports from traditional markets. It also includes factors such as weakening demand dynamics in emerging countries, international capital outflows, rising production costs, and reduced policy stimulus space. The adjustment of the domestic economic structure in the emerging countries due to the situation has also slowed down the pace of economic growth to some extent.
The growth rate of international trade has dropped significantly, and disputes have been frequent. According to the IMF forecast, the global trade growth rate in 2012 was only 3.2%, much lower than the average annual growth rate of 5.7% since 1980. The import and export volume of developed countries fell from 4.9% and 5.7% in 2011 to 1.7%. 2.4%, the import and export volume of emerging markets and developing countries decreased from 9.8% and 6.6% to 7.4% and 4.0% respectively; especially in East Asia, the decline in exports was very significant; the total volume of world trade reached 22.42 trillion US dollars, only increasing from the previous year. $190 billion. There are four main reasons for the decline in global trade growth in 2012. First, the EU, as the world's largest exporter and importer, has experienced economic recession due to the sovereign debt crisis. Second, the United States, as the world's largest trading nation, has weak economic recovery. Third, the global economic growth rate has slowed down markedly, and trade momentum is insufficient. Fourth, trade protectionism policies have emerged in an endless stream, which has become an important factor in the expansion of global trade.
Commodity prices fluctuated dramatically. In 2012, the commodity prices first rose and then fell in the first half of the year, and the second half of the year oscillated upwards. The US Commodity Research Bureau Index (CRB Index), which reflects the overall change in global commodity prices, was 31.31 points in January and rose to 322.4 points in February. Since then, it has fallen all the way, the lowest in June, and fell to 266 points, the lowest in nearly 20 months. point. However, the situation has suddenly changed in the second half of the year. In the third quarter, the S&P GSCI index, which includes 24 raw materials, rose more than 20% from the lowest point at the end of the second quarter. In the fourth quarter, commodity prices generally rose as a result of the Fed’s QE3 and the loose monetary policy of the European Central Bank. However, the trend of commodity prices has clearly diverged. Grain and metals have risen and then risen, and the year-on-year trend has been rising. The energy price index of crude oil, natural gas and coal fluctuated greatly in the first half of the year, but the EU embargoed Iran on July 1. After the oil came into effect, the price of crude oil went up. Crude oil prices on the New York Stock Exchange fluctuated between $80 and $110 a barrel, and the London Metal Exchange's copper price fluctuated around $8,000/ton. Obviously, the main reason for the large fluctuations in commodity prices is the slowdown in global economic growth, the continued oversupply of liquidity, the deepening of financialization and the upswing of short-term supply and demand imbalances.
Developed economies have further released liquidity, and international financial markets have been ups and downs. A large amount of liquidity can alleviate the debt crisis and boost market confidence, but it also leads to large-scale international capital flows, currency and stock market volatility, and rising energy and commodities, which adversely affect the stability and recovery of the world economy. In 2012, the global financial market continued its volatility in the previous year. With the global economic slowdown, the European debt crisis fermented, investors' risk aversion rose, the US dollar, the Australian dollar and the Swiss franc became the main safe-haven currencies. The yen, the renminbi, the Brazilian real exchange rate against the US dollar regained its appreciation, and the gold price It is also constantly rising. At the same time, as global inflationary pressures have eased, central banks have launched a new round of easing policies, and global liquidity is relatively sufficient. Emerging markets have experienced capital flight in the first half of the year due to the slowdown in economic growth, the intensification of the European debt crisis and the increase in capital demand in the international banking industry. More importantly, the increasingly close “fiscal cliff†is like a “Sword of Damocles†hanging over the US economy. After more than three years of European sovereign debt crisis, it has not stopped bleeding, and it has been affecting global finance. The nerves of the market.
The economic crisis triggered a "trio" of social crises and political crises. In 2012, the United States, Russia, France, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Venezuela and other countries held general elections or local elections, which basically triggered confrontation and game between the rightists who advocated economic contraction and the leftists who opposed the austerity. Coupled with the slowdown in economic growth and the high unemployment rate, social contradictions in some countries have intensified and political turmoil has occurred. Political factors have also led to the complexity and variability of the world economy this year.
Looking ahead to 2013, some positive factors will help drive the global economy to accelerate its recovery. The United States is gradually recovering from "the biggest engine of the global economy." The pressure on the EU debt crisis is gradually released. The ability of emerging economies to cope with the crisis continues to grow.
Despite the unsatisfactory performance of the world economy in 2012, it is considered to be a "bottoming" for the recovery next year. Looking ahead to 2013, it can be seen that some positive factors will help accelerate the pace of recovery of the global economy. First, the "biggest engine of the global economy" is gradually recovering. With the slow recovery of the housing market, the retail market is gradually improving, the inflation rate has dropped to the lowest level in 10 years, and the confidence of consumers and investors has rebounded. In 2012, the US economy achieved growth of more than 2% and became the growth of the Western “G7â€. The fastest country. In particular, on September 14, the Fed launched the fourth round of quantitative easing policy launched in November and November, which is more conducive to the improvement of its macroeconomic conditions. Second, the pressure on the EU debt crisis is gradually released. In response to the economic downturn, the EU adopted a series of monetary, fiscal and reform policies, including the official launch of the euro zone's permanent rescue mechanism in July, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), and the European Central Bank's “direct currency trading plan†in September. The EU has adopted a loose monetary policy including interest rate cuts, intervention in the national debt market, efforts to achieve a double balance between “fiscal austerity†and “stimulus growth†and accelerated structural reforms, which will help to avoid splitting and strengthening the euro zone. Enterprise investment and consumer confidence, in turn, promote the synchronization of EU financial integration and monetary integration. Third, the ability of emerging economies to cope with the crisis has continued to increase. Faced with the severe external environment, most emerging economies have adopted economic stimulus policies, which have reversed the economic downturn to some extent. As the double deficits weaken and foreign capitals return, the contribution rate of emerging economies to the world economy is worth looking forward to.
Based on the above positive factors, many international institutions and professionals have indicated that 2013 will be a cautiously optimistic year. According to the IMF's forecast, the global economy is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2013. Although it is only 0.3% more than this year, it has reversed the downward trend since 2011. Among them, the GDP growth estimates of the United States, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, China, India, Brazil, and Russia are 2.1%, 0.9%, 0.4%, 1.1%, 2.0%, 1.3%, and 8.2%, respectively. 5.9%, 3.9%, and 3.8%, the leading role of big countries in the global economy has reappeared. More importantly, the world economic landscape may have undergone a historic change. According to the IMF's forecast, the share of emerging markets and developing countries in global GDP will rise to 50.8% in 2013, surpassing developed countries for the first time, and for the first time in history, it has become the “main disk†in the world economic map. In addition, the G20 has become an important platform for global economic governance. It is believed that the G20 summit in Russia next September will explore new ways of world economic growth, seek good ways to avoid risks, and enhance the confidence of the world to overcome difficulties.
Of course, there are still some important factors in the recovery of the world economy next year that deserve attention, and some risks need to be handled with caution.
First, the US national debt ceiling and the "fiscal cliff" issue will directly affect the world economic outlook. If the United States solves the problem of poor debt, it will lead to further reduction of the US sovereign debt credit rating, then the turmoil in the international financial market will be inevitable. At present, the United States Republican and Democratic parties are engaged in a fierce game around the "fiscal cliff." With the expiration of the US tax cuts and the launch of the automatic spending reduction mechanism, the government spending of around 600 billion US dollars will be reduced, which will be enough to drag the US economy into recession, and will also bring huge risks to the world economy.
Second, the European debt crisis is an important uncertain factor and one of the important risks. Since the Greek debt issue was exposed in October 2009, the European debt crisis has been more than three years. Although many European initiatives have steadily advanced and the overall debt crisis is manageable, the debt situation of Greece and other countries may deteriorate at any time, and the risks have not been completely ruled out. The "troika" has serious differences in the debt reduction of debtor countries. In addition, the growth of core countries such as Germany and France is weak, and the outbreak of political and social problems may drag down the entire Eurozone economy.
Third, how fast is the pace of recovery in emerging markets, and the world looks forward to strengthening global governance and regional cooperation. Although the IMF predicts that the emerging economies and developing countries as a whole will achieve 5.6% growth in 2013, if the external environment continues to deteriorate and the self-sustaining growth momentum is not strong enough, the trajectory of emerging economies to maintain rapid growth is difficult to achieve. Therefore, it is particularly important to further promote global governance and the reform of the international monetary and financial system. The increase of regional economic cooperation will also be a new bright spot.
Fourth, there is uncertainty in the global liquidity and how to solve the debt problem. The US fiscal deficit will exceed $1 trillion for five consecutive years, and the impact of its unconventional monetary policy cannot be underestimated. In 2013, the total global debt is estimated to climb from US$57 trillion in 2012 to US$60 trillion, and the global debt ratio will reach 81%, which is 80% higher than the international warning line. . Whether the debt crisis has spread from Europe to other continents remains to be seen.
Fifth, the trend of trade protectionism and commodity markets will also affect economic growth. World trade disputes and trade protectionism are expected to remain high next year, thus hampering the growth of world trade. In 2013, global trade growth was forecast at 4.5%, significantly lower than the average annual growth rate of 5.7% since 1980. If the global economy continues to slow down and international demand shrinks further, it will inevitably lead to a further rise in protectionism. The energy price in 2013 depends on supply, especially the US shale gas production and the development of the Iranian nuclear crisis. Due to the low growth rate of the world economy, there will not be much change in demand, and ample liquidity will push up commodity prices.
