Overseas markets continue to shrink The outlook for China's PV is unknown
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“As far as I know, at present, the relatively large domestic PV companies have had different situations of shutting down and shutting down factories. Because demand exceeds supply, this year we still have to digest last year's surplus production capacity and maintain the normal capital chain. In fact, it is from listed companies. From the perspective of the current situation, perhaps the executives are also considering delisting, because there are too many problems after the listing.†A high-level domestic photovoltaic told the Times Weekly reporter.
In the past 2011, the domestic PV companies experienced the worst winter since 2008. More than half of the PV companies were in the state of discontinued production or semi-discontinued production. The stock price of a number of companies fell from the highest point all the way to “1′′ stock, and many listed companies went public. The chief financial officer of the photovoltaic company has left the company, and even worse, the Nasdaq will be delisted or the delisting plan will start automatically.
“It is still too early for the PV industry to slow down. The situation is very poor in 2011 and will not be good in 2012. If the US and EU markets are not good, they will not be better. Scitech has his ideas and is willing to take risks. If the market If you are willing to accept it, there will be no problem. It can only be said that ordinary companies will not choose to go public,†said Lin Boqiang, member of the National Energy Experts Advisory Committee and director of the Energy Economics Research Center of Xiamen University, told the Times Weekly reporter.
As listed companies have signs of delisting and the oversupply of the entire industry does not require expansion of production capacity, Henan Sikeda Co., Ltd. has chosen to contravene the counter-trend listing. According to the prospectus published by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Times Weekly reporters also found many problems.
High debt ratio It is reported that Henan Sike up company accounted for only 5.63% of the market share of the photovoltaic industry, on its prospectus shows: the company intends to issue 34.5 million shares, after the release of the total share capital of 13.450 million Shares will be listed on the GEM. After the capital investment project is completed and put into production, the company's photovoltaic glass original film, ultra-white photovoltaic glass production capacity and ultra-transparent photovoltaic glass production capacity will increase by 40.00%, 65.54% and 333.33%, respectively.
However, according to the data in its prospectus, Henan Sikeda Co., Ltd. has not actually completely digested the production capacity. And various financial conditions also have many "difficulties."
According to its prospectus, from 2009 to 2011, the net operating cash flow of Scitech was -406.251 million yuan, 47.6491 million yuan, 33.734 million yuan, and the net investment cash flow was -2206.98 million yuan respectively. -Rmb109 million and -245 million, and the net cash flow from financing was 64,803,300 yuan, 84,433,800 yuan and 193 million yuan, respectively, and the net increase in cash and cash equivalents were 2,559,700 yuan, 23,113,700 yuan and 191,100,500 respectively. yuan.
The result of the above financial report shows that the net amount of operating cash flow of Scitech can not only fail to meet the needs of investment cash flow, but also significantly lower than the net profit. In addition, from the 2011 data, the main product capacity is 25.1293 million square meters, sales of 18,479,900 square meters, in other words, there are 6,684,400 square meters of production capacity is not fully digested.
So why should the company continue to expand its production capacity in the event that the existing production capacity is not fully digested?
In addition, from 2009 to 2011, the company’s total liabilities were 270 million yuan, 340 million yuan, and 530 million yuan respectively, and the asset-liability ratio was 80.34%, 61.74%, and 65.28%, respectively. In this regard, Scitech's prospectus said: The main reason for the company's debt increase year by year is the expansion of production and operation scale, the increase in asset size, and the increase in liabilities.
The reasons for the high debt ratio of the company are due to the expansion of its scale, so why continue to expand production capacity? Moreover, from 2009 to 2011, the company’s current liabilities were RMB 250 million, RMB 323 million, and RMB 478 million respectively, accounting for 91.56%, 93.13%, and 89.77% of the total liabilities. Correspondingly, current assets were 213 million yuan, 326 million yuan, and 343 million yuan respectively, accounting for 62.65%, 58.1%, and 42.04% of total assets.
Scitech's current ratio and quick ratio are significantly lower than the comparable average prices of listed companies in the same industry. The debt-to-asset ratio is significantly higher than the average value of listed companies in the same industry, and its ability to meet short-term liabilities is obviously insufficient, once the company is facing In a difficult operating environment, there will be a great risk of debt repayment.
If the dependence is too large, the market will go through difficulties. "Current development of civil photovoltaic energy through the market is difficult. The cost price cannot be compared with conventional energy. If it is done at the same price, there will be no subsidy problem. If not, it must rely on government subsidies." The difference is that the photovoltaic industry's dependence on government subsidies is extremely high." A domestic photovoltaic company executive told the Times Weekly reporter.
The phenomenon of excessive dependence on policy has also been recognized by Lin Boqiang. In the three years from 2009 to 2011, China's crystalline silicon solar photovoltaic glass supply capacity has grown rapidly, with output increasing from 52.25 million square meters to 15.50 million square meters, with an annual compound growth rate as high as 69.72%.
All backgrounds are foreign government's larger policy subsidies for the photovoltaic industry. The number of Chinese PV companies has increased rapidly in the past three years. According to the industry’s words, “there are profits when they see all of them making production,†and at the same time, the capacity of photovoltaics continues to increase. It is currently estimated that half of the production capacity is excess capacity.
As mentioned in the Scitech Stock Exchange prospectus, there is a risk of concentration of sales in the company. If the photovoltaic industry is affected by unfavorable factors, it will have a significant adverse effect on the operating conditions of the company's major customers or a change in the stable cooperative relationship between the company and its major customers, which will adversely affect the company's operating performance.
However, starting from 2011, several major PV overseas markets have lowered their subsidy policies. In the early morning of March 21st, the U.S. Department of Commerce once again added to China's PV industry, announcing the preliminary results of the anti-subsidy measures in China's PV “double-anti-policy†policy: the countervailing duty rate on Chinese PV products exported to the US is 2.9%. 4.73%. Among them, the countervailing duty rate for Wuxi Suntech was 2.9%, countervailing duty for Trina Solar was 4.73%, and other photovoltaic companies were 3.61%.
Prior to this, Germany had already announced a substantial reduction in PV subsidies. Among them, large-scale photovoltaic power station projects are faced with a subsidy of up to 30%. Later, the German policy adjustment has led to a series of collateral effects: Many countries in the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain and other countries have also announced plans to reduce solar energy subsidies.
“Now the PV industry is still subsidized by government subsidies. We look at the government’s face and eat. It has to be financially affected. Without a true profit model, the PV electricity price has not yet reached parity, so how long can it support? The real demand comes from The mature market, or the roof market for residents with higher electricity prices, did not come out,†said the senior executives of the above-mentioned Times Weekly reporter.
There is a serious overcapacity and the overseas market continues to shrink. The prospects of China's PV industry are not clear. As for Scitech, the top five customers of the company, China Yingli, LDK Solar, China Tianwei, Jiangsu Hairun, Shanghai Chaori, and Zhejiang Sunflower all experienced many financial problems in 2011. Sevi LDK bankruptcy news.
The sales amount of the top five customers accounted for 57.19%, 49.64%, and 62.02% of the total sales revenue of SCI. Yingli 2010 financial report shows that its 2010 customers are mainly distributed in Europe, the United States and China. The subregional income data shows that Germany accounted for about 59%, the United States accounted for about 12%, China accounted for only 4%.
Constrained by the positioning of its customers, even if Scitech chooses to list in the domestic market, it will inevitably lead to the fact that the client market is mostly overseas. Then, the foreign government's policy subsidy for PV companies in China will continue to decline. It will inevitably affect the various financial data of SCI.
In the prospectus of Scitech, it was mentioned that in 2010, the rapid growth of the company’s main business and net profit was mainly due to the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry and the introduction of new products. In 2011, the company’s main business and net profit The increase was mainly attributable to the sales of high-value-added products and the increase in sales.
Contradictingly, in 2009, 2010, and 2011, the company's operating income was 168.5587 million yuan, 328.89 million yuan, 410.3853 million yuan, and net profits were 11.6477 million yuan, 4862.47 million yuan and 67.992 million yuan respectively. With all the financial data of the company's top five customers declining, Scitech's financial data appeared to be a red flag.
An industry expert told the Times Weekly reporter: “Before thinking of the upcoming IPO, I did not hear too much news about this company. The photovoltaic industry is just like this, and an abstruse company emerges from the cold, it should not be domestic. Companies with better indicators."
Under such circumstances, Lian Si Ke company also admits that if there is any adverse change in the PV glass market or there is a big deviation between the market capacity of the raised capital investment project and the expected sales, it is possible to digest the new capacity market. The actual investment income of the project has an impact.
As of press time, the company that was established in 2006 failed to reply to the above questions.
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