The export volume of abrasives continues to grow at a high speed. The machine tool industry shifts from speed to quality.
December 23 15:07:41, 2022
A few days ago, the reporter interviewed Wu Bolin, executive vice president of China Machine Tool Industry Association, on the operation of the machine tool industry in 2010 and the industry trend in 2011. Â He said that the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the transformation of development methods, accelerated structural adjustment, improved investment quality and efficiency, and strict control over investment in overcapacity industries to prevent new low-level redundant construction. This will make the industry pay more attention to the quality of investment, instead of pursuing the scale of fixed asset investment. The rapid growth of the machine tool industry in 2010 has increased its base and will affect the growth rate in 2011. Therefore, it is expected that the growth rate of the machine tool industry in 2011 should exceed 10%. In the past 2010, the total industrial output value of the whole industry was 553.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%. The growth is gratifying. The import is worrying. According to the statistics of the sub-industry, the total industrial output value of the gold cutting machine tool industry is 130.60 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%. The output of gold cutting machine tools was 755,779 units, of which the output of CNC machine tools reached 223,897 units, a year-on-year increase of 33.1% and 66.7% respectively. The total industrial output value of the forming machine tool industry was 40.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.2%. The output of forming machine tools was 261,488 units, of which the output of CNC machine tools reached 12,207 units, a year-on-year increase of 18.0% and 8.1% respectively. In contrast, import data, in 2010, the cumulative import of machine tool products reached a record high, reaching 15.72 billion US dollars, an increase of 62.0%. Among them, the import of metal processing machine tools was 9.42 billion US dollars, up 59.8% year-on-year; compared with the highest point in 2008, it also increased by 24.4%. The export of machine tool products was US$7.03 billion, up 48.4% year-on-year; among them, metal processing machine tools exported US$1.85 billion, up 31.3% year-on-year. None of them reached the best level in 2008. The import and export deficit of metal processing machine tools was US$7.57 billion, an increase of 68.6% year-on-year. Analysis of export data shows three characteristics. First, the monthly export value of machine tool tools increased at a high rate year-on-year, but the growth rate of metal processing machine tools was lower than that of machine tool products. Second, the structure of export products needs to be further optimized. Last year, the export volume of abrasives and small industries continued to grow at a high speed. The cumulative export volume reached US$1.53 billion, more than 100% year-on-year. With cutting tools and tools, the small industry has become the two largest export products in the machine tool industry. 44.5% of the total export value of tool products. Among these two types of products, resource-based, high-energy products such as low-grade abrasives and tools account for a large proportion. The proportion of exports of machine tools with relatively high added value is getting smaller and smaller, accounting for only 26.3%. The phenomenon of unreasonable structure of China's export products has not been effectively changed. Third, the unit price of CNC metal processing machine tools continued to decline. There are horizontal machining centers, gantry machining centers, CNC grinding machines, CNC punching machines, etc. In addition to the appreciation of the renminbi, companies are competing for price reductions in fierce international competition. In short, the main reason for the sharp rebound in the export value of machine tools is the signs of recovery in the international market, especially in emerging markets and Asian markets. In addition, the low base in the previous year is also one of the reasons for the rapid growth in 2010. At the same time, however, the impact of the financial crisis on the export of machine tools still exists, and the situation is not optimistic. The weak foreign markets, the low added value of China's major export products, the continued appreciation of the renminbi, and the increase in production costs have greatly reduced the profits of exporting companies. Therefore, accelerating the structural adjustment of export products is still a long-term strategic focus in the future. In 2010, domestic machine tool imports increased by 27.8% compared with the highest in 2008, a record high. This is due to the low base in the previous year, and the machine tool, especially the metal processing machine, has a monthly import growth rate of more than 100%. On the one hand, domestic machine tool products cannot fully meet the domestic market demand. On the other hand, with the further opening of the market and the country's encouragement of imports and the implementation of balanced trade policies, it is expected that the import value of machine tools will remain high for a period of time. Uncharacteristically, the unit price of imported CNC metalworking machine tools has dropped sharply year-on-year. In 2010, the average import price of CNC metalworking machine tools was US$142,000, compared with US$213,000 in 2009 and US$151,000 in 2008. The association believes that in 2009, the domestic market was mainly driven by national key investment projects, and the demand for high-end CNC machine tools was large, resulting in a significant increase in unit prices compared with previous years. In 2010, the domestic market demand for various levels of products has increased significantly, especially the increase in the number of low-end mid-range machine tools imported from Japan, thus lowering the average unit price of imported machine tools. In addition, the development of the domestic functional component industry lags behind in import and export. The numerical control devices, machine tool fixtures, parts for metal forming machine tools, measuring tools and measuring instruments all showed an increase in the volume of imports, which greatly exceeded the growth rate of import funds. This reflects the huge market capacity of China's functional components and measuring instruments, and the division of demand levels is becoming more and more detailed. The development of the domestic functional component industry is relatively lagging behind. The association believes that the current high-speed import of machine tool products indicates that China has huge demand for medium and high-end products and strong purchasing power. Chinese enterprises should seize this opportunity to work hard on how to replace imported products and learn advanced foreign service concepts, achieve structural adjustment, and transform the development mode. In the second half of the year, the growth rate has slowed down. In terms of production, the total industrial output value of the machine tool industry continued to grow at a high speed. In addition to the impact of holiday factors in January, February and February, the monthly total industrial output value of other months is stable at more than 40 billion yuan. In the large machine tool industry, only the gross industrial output value of the three small industries of gold cutting machine tools, measuring tools and measuring instruments, and woodworking machinery was lower than the industry average, which was 34.3%, 33.9% and 36.5% respectively. Among the other five small industries, the highest growth rate year-on-year was machine tool accessories, which was 52.3%. The rest were followed by casting machinery, abrasives, other metal processing machinery, and metal forming machine tools. At the same time, the monthly growth rate of the total industrial output value of the small-cutting industry of Jinchee Machine Tool fluctuated at a high level. From the perspective of industrial output value indicators, the overall machine tool industry maintained a high-speed growth trend throughout the year, with a cumulative growth rate of 40.6% for the whole year, and a year-on-year growth rate of 40.1% in December was lower than the cumulative growth rate. The main factor was the sharp increase in growth rate in December 2009. In terms of sales, the sales rate of industrial products for machine tools and tools was 98.2%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the same period of 2009. However, only the cutting tools and abrasives, woodworking machinery and other metal processing machinery in the eight small industries were positive, because The large amount and relatively high growth rate have driven the positive growth of industry-wide data. The sales rate of industrial products in the metal cutting machine and forming machine industry decreased by 1.1 and 0.4 percentage points respectively. According to the statistical data of some key enterprises in the association, the growth rate of monthly product sales in the first 11 months was in the upward channel in the first 6 months, and entered the down channel in the next 5 months. The accumulated inventory decreased slightly, but still The second high point of the year was 9.94 billion yuan. All of the above indicators show that the growth rate of product sales revenue may slow down in the future. On the demand side, the statistics of the investment in the 13 machine tool user industries by the State Administration of Taxation show that the equipment investment in the accumulated fixed assets is positive growth, and the growth rate of 11 industries is above two digits. It is the automotive industry and the electrical and electronics industry, with 207.3 billion yuan and 203.7 billion yuan respectively. And the total planned investment of these two industries has increased by about 30% year-on-year. The automotive and electrical and electrical industries will also be the main force in the consumption of machine tool products. However, some subtle changes in the market should also attract attention. In the case of the sales revenue of Jinchee machine tool manufacturers, some sales of machine tool enterprises with heavy machine tools as the leading products have experienced low or even negative growth. In this regard, industry companies should keep a clear head on the market hot spots that appeared in the early stage, strengthen pre-judgment, and actively respond to market changes. In terms of structure, in recent years, some industries have experienced low levels of redundant construction. The increase in demand for low-end products in the machine tool market is a reflection of this situation. With the rational return of market demand, the structure has gradually become reasonable, reaching 52.5% for the whole year, indicating that the machine tool market structure is still developing in a healthy direction. What is worrying is that China's machine tool product structure still cannot meet the demand of medium and high-end products in the domestic market. Although China's import of machine tool products has been continuously growing at a high speed for many years, the annual import growth rate in 2010 exceeded 60%. Compared with 2009, the proportion of imported mid-range products increased in 2010, and the proportion of high-end products decreased. The influx of mid-end products has created tremendous competitive pressure on China's developing medium and high-end CNC machine tool industry. In addition, the "Framework Agreement on Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation" (ECFA) signed between the mainland and Taiwan came into effect on January 1, 2011, and a number of products that implemented early harvest began to implement tariff reductions. The original tax rate was reduced to 5% from 9.7%. Less than 5% is reduced to zero tariff. Mid-range CNC lathes and other products will create greater competitive pressure for mainland companies. Machine tool enterprises should have active response measures to enable enterprises to continue to develop in the fierce market competition. With the development of the national economy, the machine tool market is still expanding. Whether it can speed up the pace of product structure adjustment and quickly meet user needs is an important factor in determining whether we can expand market share. At present, the structural adjustment of China's machine tool products has a long way to go. It also requires great efforts from the industry and the need for appropriate policy support from the state. From speed to quality The 2010 Central Economic Work Conference proposed: To accelerate the transformation of economic development mode as an important goal and strategic measure for the thorough implementation of the scientific development concept, the essence of which is to improve the quality and efficiency of economic development, that is, to promote technological innovation. Optimize the structure, improve efficiency, reduce energy consumption, and protect the environment. To this end, the Association analyzed some economic benefit indicators in the first half of 2010, and further analyzed the corresponding indicators at the end of the year, hoping to guide enterprises to shift from focusing on scale and speed to focusing on quality and efficiency, thus achieving the whole industry. The goal of improving operational quality and efficiency. In this analysis, 94 companies with certain representativeness in the whole industry were selected, including: 62 gold cutting machine tools, 13 forging machines, 5 machine tool accessories, 6 rolling parts, 3 numerical control devices, and electrical industry. 2, 3 cutting tools. Although the above-mentioned enterprises cannot fully reflect the overall appearance of the whole industry, their analysis can have a preliminary understanding of the quality and efficiency of the economic operation of the industry. In the analysis, four indicators of current asset turnover rate, input-output ratio, energy output per 10,000 yuan and output value profit rate were selected to analyze the state of capital use, the contribution of total assets, energy consumption and output value. Profit status. As can be seen from the table, the indicators of the whole industry generally have a greater degree of improvement than the same period last year. In the small industry, the energy consumption per 10,000 yuan of output value of the gold cutting machine tool industry has increased by 10% year-on-year. Under the condition that its output value has increased by 28.9%, the energy consumption per 10,000 yuan of output value has reversed, and the relevant enterprises should give Pay full attention to it. The liquidity turnover rate of the forging machinery industry decreased by 0.1 times compared with the same period of last year. The indicators indicate that the efficiency of capital use has decreased. Based on the analysis of 2010 data, the association also predicted the growth rate in 2011. Previous data shows that the growth rate of the total output value of the machine tool industry is higher than that of the national GDP. In 2011, while increasing investment, the state has highlighted inflation suppression and implemented a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. Therefore, the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the transformation of development methods, accelerated structural adjustment, improved investment quality and efficiency, and strict control over investment in overcapacity industries to prevent new low-level redundant construction. This will make the industry pay more attention to the quality of investment, instead of pursuing the scale of fixed asset investment. The rapid growth of the machine tool industry in 2010 has increased its base and will affect the growth rate in 2011. Therefore, the association expects that the growth rate of the machine tool industry in 2011 should exceed 10%. Figure 1 shows the actual growth rate of monthly industrial output in the last three years and the forecast for each month in 2011. Based on the industry-wide forecast, the association expects that after deducting the non-machine tool production factors, the sales value of metal processing machine tools in 2011 will reach 24.7 billion US dollars; imports 9.5 billion US dollars; exports 2.3 billion US dollars; consumption 31.9 billion US dollars. However, the country is adjusting the existing statistical scope, which may have some impact on the domestic sales value in 2011. The convergence of statistical data with the previous year will also have an impact.