The impact of the renminbi on the euro against the US dollar affects the internationalization process
March 22 13:08:49, 2023
Recently, the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate rose 0.04% to 6.3885, and once again saw 6.3967 in the session, hitting a new high. Since April, the convertible RMB of 1 US dollar has risen from 6.3021 yuan to 6.3967 yuan yesterday, and the RMB has depreciated by 1.44% against the US dollar. The euro against the yuan exchange rate hit a new low of 7.7086 yuan yesterday, and closed at 7.7387. Also since April, the convertible renminbi of 1 euro has dropped from 8.2860 yuan to 7.7387 yuan yesterday, and the renminbi has appreciated by 7.86% against the euro. On the one hand, it is appreciation, and on the other hand, it is depreciation. This will undoubtedly have a great impact on the Chinese consumption and wealth management life that occasionally spends US dollars and euros. However, the hard-earned hard-earned money of the Chinese people has depreciated and shrunk in the indiscriminate banknotes of Europe and the United States, which has led to the idea of ​​accelerating the internationalization of the renminbi. Different from the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the internationalization of the RMB is something that China wants to do. What must be done, its progress may be faster than people think. The internationalization of the renminbi has three goals and three major infrastructures. The three goals are to make the renminbi an international trade currency, an international investment currency and an international reserve currency. The opening of China's current account has been initially completed in 1996. Recently, with the settlement of RMB trade with neighboring countries, the RMB is flowing out of this channel, and the progress has been very smooth. The People's Bank of China has reached a currency swap agreement with a number of central banks to conditionally allow the renminbi to gradually become the reserve currency of the central bank. The renminbi is part of the IMF's SDR (Special Drawing Rights) and I believe it is only a matter of time. The renminbi has become an international investment currency and is a difficult and bottleneck in internationalization. The gradual opening of restrictions on overseas capital entry and domestic capital outflows under the premise of supervision should be a general trend. Qualification review and cross-border approval of funds are the two major barriers. There are four preconditions for the opening of capital projects: stable macro environment, abundant foreign exchange reserves, stable financial institutions and perfect financial supervision. These four conditions are now in place, and the capital project can be opened up moderately. The internationalization of the renminbi requires the establishment of infrastructure in three major sectors. In addition to capital projects, interest rate liberalization and exchange rate formation mechanism reform must also take shape. The former is to rationalize the internal capital relationship and the capital price signal, and the latter is to clarify the relative price signals of funds and foreign capital. Most countries first introduced interest rate liberalization, then floated exchange rates, and finally opened up controls on cross-border flows of capital. Judging from the current situation of China's boxing in the Quartet, interest rate liberalization, exchange rate marketization and capital account opening are likely to be synchronized, coordinated, and mature. China is creating a precedent for crossing the river by feeling the stones.
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