China's ethylene demand may reach 38 million tons in 2015
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The National Industry Research Institute report pointed out that in 2011, China’s total ethylene production capacity was 15.31 million tons per year, an increase of 1.3% year-on-year; output was 15.167 million tons, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year; net imports were 1,060,400 tons, an increase of 34.4%; Consumption amounted to 16.217 million tons, an increase of 8.3% over the same period of last year. Ethylene production basically increased at the same time as apparent consumption.
At present, domestic ethylene consumption is mainly reflected in downstream derivatives, of which 60% is used for the production of polyethylene. In the consumption statistics, equivalent consumption is used to evaluate the actual demand for ethylene. In 2011, the equivalent consumption of ethylene in China was approximately 30 million tons, and the self-sufficiency ratio of ethylene equivalent consumption was approximately 53%. There is still a large supply gap.
Guo Zhenji, author of Petrochemical Jihua Research Institute, pointed out that due to the rapid development of China's building materials, household appliances and automobile industries, the demand for ethylene derivatives such as polyethylene, styrene, and synthetic rubber will continue to maintain a relatively rapid growth rate in 2012. Ethylene market demand increased. It is expected that the domestic demand for ethylene equivalent will be 31.12 million tons in 2012, an increase of 3.7% from 2011 and 38 million tons by 2015. In the next few years, China's monomer vinyl can be self-sufficient, while the gap in the amount of equivalent ethylene consumption is still large, and China's ethylene industry still has a certain potential for development.