Equipment manufacturing boom
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According to Yu Junhua, an analyst with Hongyuan Securities Machinery Industry, in general, there are two main reasons for the structural growth of construction machinery in the first half of the year: First, a large part of large-scale infrastructure construction projects have entered the stage of tackling the The demand for machinery, especially infrastructure-driven construction machinery such as excavators and loaders, has increased greatly. Second, since the beginning of April, the state has adjusted the real estate market, and the real estate industry has experienced a decline in operating rates. This is a concrete machinery with real estate as the main source of demand. It has had a big impact, and the growth rate has slowed down noticeably. In some months, the output even experienced a negative year-on-year growth.
“In the second quarter, the economic prosperity index of the equipment manufacturing industry returned to above 100 points, close to the level at the beginning of 2008, indicating that the equipment manufacturing industry has rebounded to the level of growth before the international financial crisis.†China Machinery Industry Federation Machinery Industry Information Center Bai Yongru It is pointed out that despite the impact of real estate regulation and other policy measures, the growth rate of domestic investment has declined, but the pace of urbanization is gradually accelerating. The policy of expanding domestic demand to increase consumption to stimulate economic growth, such as home appliances to the countryside, is still active. Role, these positive factors create market space for mechanical products. Therefore, in the second quarter, the production boom of state-owned enterprises in the machinery industry increased significantly, and the automobile, construction machinery and machine tools industries led the overall growth of the machinery industry.
However, Bai Yongru pointed out that with the further increase in the implementation of macro-control policies and related industrial policies, it is expected that in the third quarter, the machinery industry will truly appreciate the pressure from the emphasis on “quantitative change†to the emphasis on “quality changeâ€.
For this reason, Bai Yongru said that on the basis of maintaining recovery, the growth momentum of the equipment industry is gradually falling. The increase from January to May was 15.8 percentage points higher than that of the same period of last year. Compared with the beginning of this year, it was 1.6 percentage points higher than that of the first two months. Compared with January-February, the growth rate dropped by 3.7 percentage points. In the future, with the changes in the domestic and international economic situation and the macro-control policies such as domestic real estate and the industrial policies that shrink the excess capacity of downstream industries, the overall situation of the industry may undergo new changes.
In the face of steadily rising momentum, the structural adjustment of China's equipment manufacturing industry will still face certain pressure in the second half of the year. Bai Yong reminded that in the third quarter of 2010, the scale of investment in fixed assets will be reduced, and the investment in overcapacity industries will shrink significantly. Under the factors, the equipment manufacturing industry has a higher pressure on the economy. Due to the increase in automobile inventories in June, the overall sales situation has become a sales force for individual models. In the second half of the year and next year, there will still be a release of the production capacity of the pre-investment of the manufacturers, so there will be more uncertainties, the automotive industry, parts and machine tools, etc. Industry investment enthusiasm will be reduced, and the demand of related industries will fall back. Experts reminded that it is necessary to pay more attention to the effect of investment in adjusting the industrial structure. It is necessary to pay attention to the continued tightening of the country to regulate the overcapacity of equipment manufacturing in the context of overcapacity in multiple industries, and to increase monitoring and research. Avoid new surpluses in areas such as automotive manufacturing, wind power equipment, large and heavy-duty special equipment.
Under pressure, the development of the equipment industry in the second half of the year still has bright spots. In 2010, the total investment of 23 key projects in the development of the western region reached 682.2 billion yuan. A new round of three-year agricultural network upgrading and upgrading project will be launched. The increase in railway investment will reach 823.5 billion yuan, which will obviously drive the formation of the industry. At the same time, the development environment of clean energy such as onshore and offshore wind power, nuclear power, hydropower, electric vehicle batteries and photovoltaic power generation is improving day by day, and related investments are gradually gathering.
It is understood that the prosperity index of the China National Equipment Manufacturing Industry is jointly compiled by the Economic Daily's China Economics Industry Climate Index Research Center and the National Bureau of Statistics China Economic Climate Monitoring Center.