The overall decline of construction machinery in the middle of the year
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The performance revision of Shantui shares predicts that the company's expected results are basically the same as the same period of the previous year. Just two months ago, Shantui’s quarterly report showed that the company’s performance increased by 46.05%. At the same time, the company also released a report of 50%~100% increase in the first half of the year.
Bulldozer sales decline According to the reporter's understanding of Shantui shares, Shantui's production of bulldozers this year is indeed a large decline. In May, the company sold 474 domestic bulldozers, a year-on-year decline of 61%, a drop of 66 percentage points from the growth rate in April. From January to May, the domestic sales totaled 4,057 units, a year-on-year increase of only 19%, a slowdown of 45 percentage points from January to April.
Analysis of the reasons for the decline in Shantui's performance, the company explained that due to the impact of the country's tightening monetary policy, the company's main product market demand declined; at the same time, the investment income represented by the shareholding company Komatsushan Push Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. decreased, The difference between the company's performance forecast.
Director Lu Ying of the Information and Statistics Department of China Construction Machinery Industry Association said that Shantui mainly produces earth-moving machinery. In the first half of the year, the overall bulldozer production in the industry dropped a lot, which has a great impact on its performance. Although its concrete machinery has been selling well this year, compared with other companies in the industry that mainly produce concrete machinery, such as Zoomlion, Shantui clearly needs to strengthen its product categories and brand recognition. . In addition, Shantui's concrete machinery products accounted for a large proportion of the company's total sales, which could not drive the company's performance growth.
In fact, the decline in the output of bulldozers is not a partial phenomenon of a certain enterprise, but involves the whole industry. This is confirmed by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association. According to Lu Ying, director of the Information and Statistics Department of the Association, according to statistics, sales of bulldozers in the whole industry fell by 34% in May.
Analysis of the reasons for the decline in bulldozer production, industry experts said: the "No. 1 Document" issued by the Central Government in 2011 showed that the country should focus on speeding up the construction of farmland water conservancy, which could have driven the growth of bulldozer sales. However, up to now, the 4 trillion yuan water conservancy investment project still has no substantial large-scale construction, which has affected the demand of the bulldozer downstream market.
Product differentiation From the sales volume of the construction machinery industry in the first half of the year, there is a general downward trend, especially for some products such as bulldozers.
According to data from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, bulldozers sold 6,100 units in May, down 34.21% year-on-year, down 26.21% month-on-month, and cumulative year-on-year growth of 21.47% from January to May. It can be seen that the bulldozer's year-on-year and month-on-month declines are all above 25%.
Although the sales volume of excavators is now lower than the previous month, it has increased slightly year-on-year. At the same time, the cumulative increase is still relatively large. The sales volume in May decreased by 15% in May, and the sales volume in January-May increased by 37.92%. The sales volume of loaders decreased in May, but the year-on-year data. Basically the same as the previous year, while the cumulative increase reached 20%. In the month of May, the sales volume of the road roller decreased by 27.79%, a decrease of 34.97% from the previous month.
The data from the China Machinery Industry Federation is basically in line with the data of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association. In particular, both sides have confirmed that the cumulative increase in excavators is over 33% from January to May. According to the data of the China National Machinery Association, despite the decline in the production of bulldozers, the production of excavators, loaders and concrete machinery continued to grow from January to May, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of more than 33%. In the comparison of the entire machinery industry, the construction machinery industry has the characteristics of rapid decline and large increase. According to the statistics of the China Machinery Industry Federation, the growth rate of the construction machinery industry from January to May was 5.21 percentage points lower than that of January to April, down 3.23 percentage points. Its decline rate ranks second among the 12 sub-sectors of the machinery industry. At the same time, however, the growth rate of the industry is still in the forefront of the machinery industry, and the growth rate of output from January to May is almost twice the industry average. According to the statistics of the China Machinery Industry Federation, from January to May, the total industrial output value of the machinery industry completed 63.082 billion yuan, an increase of 26.95%.
Corporate differentiation Shantui's performance decline, is it a common phenomenon in the industry?
According to industry experts on the inventory of several major construction machinery companies, most of the company's mid-year performance growth is expected to be more than 30%. There are two companies that expect the performance of the interim report to increase by more than 50%: including Sany Heavy Industry (95%~108%) and Zoomlion (81%~105%). It is expected that there will be three companies with a growth rate of 30%~50% in the interim report: including XGMA (40%~50%), Xugong Machinery (30%~40%) and Liugong (30%~40%). The performance of Shantui shares is expected to be below 30%, which is 0~10%.
The mid-year performance of Sany Heavy Industry is most worthy of industry expectations. According to the current orders and shipments, industry experts expect the company's concrete machinery sales revenue to increase by 70% to 80% in the first half of the year, and the growth of truck cranes and excavators will be above 100%, and road machinery growth will be around 90%. . The company's excavator sales growth is even more compelling. From January to May this year, the company sold 12,635 excavators, a year-on-year increase of 111.6%, and the market share reached 10.9%. It is expected that sales will reach 1,600 units in June. The sales target for the whole year of 2011 is 26,000 units, which will increase by about 150% year-on-year. The market share is expected to hit the market first, and the sales of excavators is expected to be 16 billion yuan.
Since the beginning of this year, Zoomlion has been expanding the existing production capacity of cranes and excavators. Recently, the company invested 2.6 billion yuan in the first phase of Jiangyin Industrial Park. After the project, the newly added capacity of cranes will reach 20,000 units, and the newly added capacity of excavators will be 30,000 units. The company's sales of concrete machinery continued to grow, with sales of concrete machinery growing by more than 100% in the first quarter. As a result, experts expect the company's performance in the middle of the year will grow faster.
Liugong’s latest sales report said that from January to June this year, the company sold 37,600 sets of construction machinery such as loaders and excavators, a year-on-year increase of 25%. From January to June, the company’s total export sales exceeded 4000. Taiwan, an increase of 81% year-on-year, of which the first month (June) exports exceeded 1,000 units for the first time.
In this regard, industry experts said that with the rapid recovery of the construction machinery industry since 2010, and the overall upward trend of the industry in April this year, the performance of certain companies in the industry in the first half of this year, the decline in sales of certain products, Although there are signs of differentiation, it does not affect the overall upward trend of the industry.
In addition, it is worthy of the construction machinery industry's pride that this year, local brand products have achieved gratifying results in terms of market share, especially on excavators. According to the data of China Machinery Industry Federation, among the 92 products monitored by the machinery industry, the largest decline in the scale of imports in the construction machinery industry is excavators. 2778 units were imported in the same month, a decrease of 1,204 units from the previous month (3982 units). The import value was $235 million, a decrease of $116 million from the previous month ($351 million). According to the data of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 688 imported original excavators were imported in May, a year-on-year decrease of 25.86%, a decrease of 45.31% from the previous month.
At the same time, the export growth of some products was good. From January to May, the cumulative sales volume of loaders was 120,000 units, and the export volume increased by 78.43%. The bulldozers exported 320 units in May, up 102.53% year-on-year. The cumulative exports from January to May were 1448 units. 66.25%; the roller has accumulated 1,519 units from January to May. Domestic brands are in an upward trend with foreign brands.