Wen Jiabao: Will use the 1 trillion fiscal balance of payments in due course
April 02 12:14:58, 2023
Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council said at the 6th Summer Davos Forum that he will adhere to a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, maintain policy continuity and stability, and increase the intensity of pre-adjustment and fine-tuning; The trillion-dollar fiscal balance and the central budget stabilization fund of more than 100 billion yuan will promote stable economic growth. Respondents analyzed with Southern Reporters yesterday that the above comments suggest that the central government will switch to fiscal policy to promote economic growth in the near future. In view of the unsustainable growth of fiscal revenues, the economists warned that the implementation of fiscal expansion should not be at the expense of restructuring. Space for fiscal and monetary policy Wen Jiabao said that he will adhere to the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, maintain the continuity and stability of the policy, and increase the intensity of pre-adjustment and fine-tuning. "All the measures we have taken this year have not exceeded the hard budget of the budget, that is to say, they are all carried out within the budget. The reason why we have reduced this year's growth rate to 7.5% is to facilitate structural adjustment and development. Change.†Wen Jiabao said that China has plenty of room for both monetary and fiscal policies. Even if the fiscal growth rate fell in the past two months, at the end of July, the fiscal balance was offset, and there was a balance of 1 trillion yuan. In addition, over the years, there are more than 100 billion yuan of central budget stabilization funds. The government "will use these as a pre-adjustment and fine-tuning measures in a timely manner to promote stable economic growth." This move is generally interpreted as the central level will implement the fiscal expansion policy to maintain the latest and most authoritative policy information on economic growth. According to Goldman Sachs senior Chinese economic analyst Cui Li yesterday in Hong Kong to Southern Reporters analysis, the timely use of 1 trillion fiscal revenue and expenditure balance steady growth suggestion, taking into account the use of monetary policy may lead to leverage and credit issues, the central government will Switch to fiscal policy to promote economic growth. According to Buchanan, chief economic analyst of Goldman Sachs Asia, the Southern Reporter analyzed that by 2011, China’s investment spending accounted for more than 45% of GDP, which was at a historical high, higher than that of neighboring Asia and Japan, and close to Singapore’s 1980s. However, the ratio of investment to GDP is still lower than that of most developed countries, and there is a surplus in the current account. Therefore, there is no bubble in the Chinese economy, and there is still room for investment. Qu Hongbin, chief economist at HSBC China, believes that the current policy level is fully aware of the key role of improving infrastructure investment in stable investment and steady growth. In the coming months, as fiscal expansion spending and monetary easing policies become effective, the economy Growth is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter. In August, the central government's first fiscal revenue was negative. Although the central government implemented a proactive fiscal policy to promote strong economic growth, given the increasingly prominent contradictions in fiscal revenue and expenditure, it is difficult to continue to implement fiscal expansion simply by increasing fiscal expenditure and expanding public investment. Nandu reporters read the data of the Ministry of Finance and saw that due to factors such as slowing economic growth, falling prices, falling corporate profits, and implementing structural tax cuts, compared with the growth rate of 24.8% of national fiscal revenue last year, the first eight months of this year The growth rate of national fiscal revenue is not optimistic. According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Finance, from January to August this year, fiscal revenue increased by 10.8% to RMB 8.233 trillion; fiscal expenditure increased by 21.8% to RMB 7.244 trillion. Among them, fiscal expenditure in August increased by 11.7% from the same period of the previous year to RMB 902 billion. In August, the national fiscal revenue was 786.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and the growth rate continued to fall. In particular, the central government's fiscal revenues fell more, with revenues of 376.5 billion yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year, and the first negative growth this year. The local level income was 409.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%. According to the Ministry of Finance data, economists analyzed yesterday that the rapid growth of fiscal revenue is difficult to sustain and has begun to show. "Financial revenues have turned into low-speed growth, which has brought about an opportunity to promote the government's revenue and expenditure reform. The government should set up the idea of ​​'tight days'," said Liu Shangxi, deputy director of the Finance Department of the Ministry of Finance. Gao Peiyong, dean of the Institute of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the task of adjusting the structure is more urgent. At the expense of adjusting the structure, it is no longer possible to rigidly implement fiscal expansion by increasing fiscal expenditures and expanding public investment. Gao Peiyong said that unlike the previous operation of “increasing the burdenâ€, the active fiscal policy should adopt structural tax reduction as the main carrier, and economic expansion through the increase of private disposable income rather than the increase of direct government investment. Helping to achieve the goal of “stable growth†while at the same time adjusting the structure and controlling the price.
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