Wu Bolin explains the situation of the bottom of the machine tool industry
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Whether the financial crisis has reached the bottom, how can the machine tool industry face such a big impact?
In May and June 2009, China Machine Tool Industry Association formed eight research groups and conducted on-the-spot investigations on 114 companies in the machine tool industry. The research objects involved state-owned holding companies, collective holding companies, privately-held enterprises, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan holding companies. In June 2009, Wu Bolin, executive vice president of the Machine Tool Industry Association, visited Eastern Europe to investigate the status quo of foreign machine tool industry. To this end, China Metal Processing Online Reporter interviewed Wu Bolin, executive vice president.
Analysis of the Status Quo of the World Machine Tool Industry
Under the current financial crisis, developed countries have fallen into a severe economic recession, and economic growth in emerging countries and other developing countries has also slowed down considerably. The global economy has generally shown a difficult situation of decline. US machine tool consumption in January 2009 was US$94.95 million, down 71.9% year-on-year and 59.2% quarter-on-quarter; Japanese machine tool companies accepted orders in February 2009, down 84% year-on-year; Germany's January 2009 capacity utilization rate was only 83% According to estimates by the German Manufacturers Association, its shrinkage will exceed 15%; domestic machine tool consumption in Italy will fall by 12.3%, and machine tool exports will fall by 5.7%.
Wu Bolin told China Metalworking Online Reporter: "This time I went to Eastern Europe to find out that the Czech Republic, Poland and Russia, the status quo of the machine tool industry in these countries is not good overall, Poland is not as good as the Czech Republic, Russia can not catch up with Poland, and they are not fleeing. The bad luck that was hit by the financial crisis. Although their countries have taken measures, but the measures are limited, they want to use the power of the whole country to stimulate domestic demand. Russia has also invested 500 million dollars to overcome its current machine tool industry. Difficulties, but the effect is not obvious."
The China Machine Tool Industry Association maintains contact with machine tool associations in more than 20 countries. From the information currently available, the machine tool industry is generally much more bleak than China, and this effect continues. In addition, in Taiwan in January and February of 2009, the total export value of machine tools was 281 million US dollars, down 47.8% year-on-year, making the export-oriented Taiwan machine tool industry once in trouble.
China's machine tool industry
In the face of the current global financial crisis, China's machine tool industry is also undergoing severe tests. The impact is relatively lagging behind internationally, but it faces two major challenges: First, it is directly affected by the international financial crisis, leading to shrinking domestic and international markets. The sharp decline in exports, the decline in production and sales, the sharp increase in inventories, the shortage of funds, and the intensification of competition; the second is that the world's scientific and technological progress and the needs of users are changing rapidly. The contradictions accumulated by the rapid development of enterprises for many years are erupting in an instant, and it is difficult to cope with it at the moment. adapt.
According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, in January and May of 2009, China's 5,813 machine tool industry enterprises above designated size completed a total industrial output value of 133.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, an increase of 29.3 percentage points over the same period of 2008.
China Machine Tool Industry Association's key links with 177 companies: In January and May 2009, the total industrial output value was 30.7 billion yuan, down 5% year-on-year; product sales revenue was 29.07 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year; profit was 1.37 billion yuan. , a year-on-year decrease of 33.1%.
The 114 enterprises surveyed: In January and April of 2009, the total industrial output value decreased by 6.3%, the sales revenue of products decreased by 11.9%, and the total profit decreased by 45.9%.
The industry situation is still grim, and uncertain factors still exist. 2009 may be the most difficult year for China's machine tool industry development, and it is also the most crucial year to overcome the financial crisis and meet the post-financial crisis era.
Comment on the current situation of China's machine tool industry
Wu Bolin analyzed that the outbreak of the financial crisis first caused major changes in the demand for China's machine tool market: First, the volume change, the overall size of the market shrank, according to relevant enterprise forecasts, the financial crisis affected the market size by more than 20%; second, qualitative changes The market demand structure has changed significantly. At the same time of volume shrinkage, the structural changes are particularly large. The large, heavy and high-grade CNC machine tools still maintain stable demand, and the demand for ordinary and low-end machine tools has shrunk dramatically. The demand for machine tools in various industries of the national economy has been uneven. Some industries such as railway, aviation, and energy industries have basically not affected the demand for machine tools. The demand for machine tools in automobile manufacturing has begun to rise. From the main production enterprises in the industry, horizontal lathes, ordinary drilling machines and ordinary milling machines have reduced production by more than 30%, the production ratio of small and medium-sized general grinding machines has decreased by 40%, and the production of low-grade EDM wire-cutting machines has decreased by 50%. And the proportion of output value of large-scale CNC machine tools has steadily increased.
As the market changes, competition is more intense. For medium and low-end CNC machine tools and tool products, domestic enterprises will further intensify competition due to shrinking market and overcapacity, coupled with the influx of low-priced products from South Korea and Taiwan. High-end products also face strong challenges from foreign companies. Due to the financial crisis, the economic downturn in developed countries has strengthened foreign companies to compete for the Chinese market. Wu Bolin told reporters that China's functional components and CNC systems are currently experiencing relatively large difficulties. The period of the impact of the financial crisis is lagging behind the host. Because it is the upstream of the host, it is no longer ordered after the host encounters difficulties. And the CNC system, its difficulties are clearly felt. In addition, despite several years of rapid development, the weak links of functional components and CNC systems have not been completely changed, and the ability to resist risks is still not strong. The functional components of Taiwan and China are still exported to the mainland.
Wu Bolin tells us that from the overall survey situation, 114 companies under investigation can be divided into three categories according to the degree of impact of the financial crisis on enterprises:
In the first category, about one-third of the companies are relatively better, and the impact is not too big. The products of these enterprises are more suitable for the needs of the current market, the technology development capability is relatively strong, the foundation is better, and the product structure adjustment is faster.
Typical enterprises belonging to this category include Wuhan Heavy Machine Tool Group Corporation, Jinan Second Machine Tool Group Corporation, Qi Er Machine Tool Group Corporation, Beijing No. 1 Machine Tool Plant, Qinghai Huading Heavy Machine Tool Group Co., Ltd., Qizhong CNC Equipment Co., Ltd., Ningbo Haitian Precision Engineering Co., Ltd. Machinery Co., Ltd., Tianshui Forging Machine Co., Ltd., Yichang Changji Technology Co., Ltd., Taian Hualu Forging Machine Co., Ltd., etc. These enterprises are mainly dominated by large-scale, heavy-duty, high-grade, special-purpose CNC machine tools. The products have high technical content, meet the current market demand, and the order contract is full. Objectively, the state invests heavily in key projects, such as ships, railways, rail transit, and large mines. Machinery, etc., these projects have a large demand for large and heavy-duty machine tools.
At the same time, a number of new technology companies with backgrounds in universities and research institutes are operating well. A group of private enterprises that are strong in the machine tool industry have a busy production task. Under the influence of the global financial crisis, they have turned against the trend and showed a strong development momentum.
In the second category, about 60% of enterprises are affected by the financial crisis. However, due to the timely and active adjustment of the company, the effect is relatively obvious, and the operating status can still be maintained. The characteristics of this type of enterprise are that there are many varieties of products, high-end machine tools, medium and low-end machine tools, large machine tools, and small machine tools. The size of such enterprises affected by the financial crisis depends on the speed of the company's own product structure adjustment and the ability to adjust. Typical of these enterprises are Shenyang Machine Tool (Group) Co., Ltd. and Dalian Machine Tool Group Co., Ltd. These two companies have relatively complete product structures. In this difficult period, they have the ability to adjust and can reduce the small lathe by 60%. 70%, then produce high-end, large-scale machining centers or boring and milling machines to adapt to the needs of the market, so their impact is not fatal, with the company's own adjustments, future sales may rise. The second type of enterprise type has a large gap, and some enterprises have some products, but the high-end machine tools account for a small share, the mid-range machine tools account for a small share, while the low-end machine tools account for 95%, then such enterprise adjustment It is more difficult to get up.
In the third category, such enterprises account for about 10%, which is seriously affected by the financial crisis. The total profit of the enterprises has a large negative value, which is quite untenable. These enterprises mainly produce low-end and ordinary products with low added value. In the past few years, they have not paid attention to the development of technology and independent innovation. Some enterprises have invested a lot of funds and loans to carry out technological transformation, but the transformation is Low-end machine tools; some of them are due to institutional constraints, heavy burdens of enterprises, and difficult to exert productivity; even some enterprises are due to major investment decision-making mistakes, resulting in a capital chain imbalance. In the face of the current shrinking market demand, especially the demand for medium and low-end products is rapidly shrinking and declining. It is easy for such enterprises to develop medium and high-end products. The product structure cannot be adjusted overnight. This enterprise is now in production. Semi-discontinued state.
Responding to financial crisis measures
In response to the impact of the financial crisis, the state has taken a series of major decisions to “adjust the structure, expand domestic demand, and maintain growth†to promote steady and rapid economic growth. The “equipment manufacturing adjustment and revitalization plan†issued by the State Council has accelerated the equipment manufacturing industry. Comprehensive strategic deployment.
Wu Bolin said: "I also said at the last industry meeting that there is no other new trick to deal with the financial crisis, that is, an improvement, two adjustments."
"One improvement is to improve the independent innovation capability of enterprises, including product development, construction of technical talents, etc., taking advantage of the important special projects of national CNC machine tools, investing manpower and material resources in a timely manner to improve the ability of scientific and technological innovation, and make up the shortage of this piece. At present, the Russian machine tool industry is difficult to this extent, but in the $500 million allocated by the country for the machine tool industry, it has spent $400 million on technology development and $100 million on technology transfer. Therefore, we should encourage and support Machine tool enterprises to strengthen investment in technological transformation, change the overcapacity of medium and low-end machine tools, and seriously reduce the production capacity of high-end machine tools, improve the manufacturing process equipment level of the machine tool industry, and change the way of production organization. Focus on the current needs and focus on the post-financial era. Demand."
"Two adjustments are that enterprises must accelerate product structure adjustment and industrial structure adjustment. Accelerate the development of high-end products, thereby accelerating product structure adjustment and changing the situation of large but not strong. Beijing No. 1 Machine Tool Plant and Wuhan Heavy Machine Tool Group Corporation adjusted More successful, basically no inventory. Product structure adjustment must have product development, technical transformation, technical capabilities to lay the ground, while product development and technical personnel's ability and quality. For the whole industry, to accelerate industrial restructuring, further Transforming the growth mode, encouraging joint restructuring among industries, realizing the transformation from large to strong, changing the development of the machine tool industry, weak core components, heavy-duty host and light-functional components, and encouraging the development of a number of 'specialized, fine, Special 'enterprise.'
Thinking about the financial crisis
When talking about market changes, Wu Berlin mentioned: "We must adapt to these two changes. Enterprises must have certain technological development strength and adjustment strength. If the enterprise encounters this financial storm 8 years ago, there may be no way." Now, enterprises are experiencing such changes, such as a group of companies represented by Shenyang Machine Tool (Group) Co., Ltd. and Dalian Machine Tool Group Co., Ltd., they can quickly stop all low-end products, and then in the middle and high-end products. The development has increased the intensity, and some high-end products have not been involved in manufacturing in the past. Now, mass production can be quickly formed. According to the needs of users, even the second innovation can be carried out on the basis of the original high-end machine tools. , special, high-end large-scale products, adaptability is particularly fast.
This cannot but be said that the rapid development of the past few years has laid a solid foundation for the victory over the financial turmoil. â€
“Many countries have better technology development than us, such as Germany, Japan, Spain and Italy, but their objective environment (market environment and policy environment) is not as good as ours. They have more difficulties than us, and the market environment they face. We are even more severe. This is also an opportunity for us. The Chinese machine tool industry can't take the current situation with the attitude of “wintering the winterâ€. We should overcome the difficulties with a positive attitude. Let's go a little further, we must see the post-financial crisis era. Turn the crisis into an opportunity, look for opportunities in the crisis, and look at this issue dialectically. The key is what we use to do the next step."
"In any case, it seems that after a number of years of rapid development, China's machine tool industry has not been hurt by the current difficulties. If we look ahead, we will make good use of the current national policies and make good use of the current The world's industry management is in a downturn, using international resources, in the post-financial crisis era, we will be able to usher in a new situation in China's machine tool industry, from the current world machine tool power to a machine tool power."
Adjust and calmly treat heavy machine tool heat in the second half of the year
Wu Berlin said that it is impossible to return to the original market conditions in the post-financial crisis era. The scale is likely to recover, the demand may be similar, but the product structure demand will change, it will continue along the current demand trend, and develop towards medium and high-end machine tools. The market is now very clear, so companies can't be passive now. They need to adjust quickly. Whether it's a bad year, a hard time, a contract, or a new product, we must consider the future development. Don't expect to dig out the old products from the stock and push them to the market. In addition, such as hard work, lower costs, grasping management, training institutions, etc., are all ways of past years, the most fundamental is the adjustment of corporate product structure and the absorption of social assets in the market economy.
As for the issue of mergers and acquisitions, the industrial restructuring is first. The optimization and restructuring of domestic enterprises is accelerating. Some new combinations have emerged in the restructuring of cross-ownership. There are already several companies that are about to form mergers and acquisitions. At this critical moment, the financial crisis has not bottomed out, and companies are particularly cautious in bargain-hunting. Second, international M&A work
It is also actively and cautiously. In the past few months, overseas M&A companies have performed well, and there are some upcoming overseas mergers and acquisitions. They are not eager to make a decision. They are all looking at the market and seeing the stock base of the Nasdaq and New York stock markets. Variety. Therefore, there will be some mergers and acquisitions of enterprises in the second half of the year.
In response to the question of China Metalworking Online Journalist's large and heavy-duty machine tool investment hotspots, Wu Bolin said: "In the investigation, many companies have discovered technological transformations and new factories aiming to develop large, heavy and super heavy-duty machine tools. Now we have felt that there is This kind of investment in the development of large and heavy machine tools. At the industry conference, we constantly send signals to everyone, paying attention to the investment of large and heavy machine tools. It is necessary to recognize that the demand for large and heavy CNC machine tools in the Chinese market is Far better than medium and small CNC machine tools, but this does not mean that large and heavy machine tools are the development trend of Chinese machine tools. The Chinese market will not continue for such long-term demand for large and heavy-duty machine tools. Will the future be the future? Repeating the situation of the overcapacity of ordinary machine tools today requires participants to think seriously, rationally analyze and make scientific decisions. I personally analyze the production capacity of our original large and heavy machine tools, plus the production capacity of newly invested production, and The production capacity that has not been put into production is compared with the demand for large and heavy machine tools in the future market. It will be surplus. "