The data shows that since June, cement prices have continued to fall, and the average price has dropped from 434.79 yuan/ton in June to 414.03 yuan/ton in August. It has been in a downtrend since September and is currently at 409.84 yuan/ton. s level. Although the price of cement affected by restricted electricity rose by 0.21% in the previous week, prices of Jiangxi Cement (000789) and its subordinate companies were reported recently, but prices in Hunan, Hubei, and Chongqing were reduced by RMB 20-50/t last week. Can not help but pay attention to the late trend of the cement market.

** Suspected to be the main target of the recent advancement of the aerospace industry. The constant signalling of stock index bottoming out. The amount of signal that can be plagued with bounce. Good thing to grind V-shaped ** Stronger to be discovered in time. [Microblogging] why the organization crazy configuration of this section [share it] market's skyrocketing will make you staggering affected by this, the recent signs of rapid capital out of the cement sector signs, the industry leader Conch Cement (600585, stock it) (600585), Jidong Cement Shares such as (000401, stocks) (000,401) and Qingsong Jianhua (600,425, stocks) (600,425) have fallen in the two cities. Analysts believe that the rebound in prices in individual regions does not reflect the national market trend. Cement prices are still falling in the channel and there are no signs of bottoming out. Due to the release of tightening and regulatory policy effects, so far, investment demand has not significantly improved, the main contradiction in the cement market has been transformed to the demand level, and investment in the logic of the bullish view of the cement plate may encounter a "trap."

The price coalition disaggregated data shows that the drop in cement prices last week was mainly reflected in Hunan, Hubei, and Chongqing in the southwestern region of Central China. Among them, Chongqing cement prices fell the most, reaching 40-50 yuan/ton, and the lowest ex-factory price for individual companies 235 yuan/ton.

Changjiang Securities (000783, stocks) analysts believe that the main reason for the decline in cement prices in Chongqing is the release of concentrated production capacity. According to statistics from the Chongqing Cement Association, in the first half of the year, Chongqing put into production seven production lines, equivalent to 12 million tons of cement, and four 8 million tons of production capacity will be released in the second half of the year.

Faced with the pressure of capacity release, the price alliance formed by the cement industry immediately appeared to be very vulnerable. Analysts pointed out that in the first half of the year, the prosperity of the cement industry was caused by the combination of three factors: strong demand, limited power production, and price alliances. Among them, the price alliance has played a role in the 1-2 quarter of this year to ensure that cement prices can continue to remain high. However, the changes in the macro situation have caused some cement companies to “stuck” and the cement price alliance is likely to have collapsed.

The decline in revaluation-driven investment prices has made the logic of bullish cement sector unsustainable on the grounds of investment pull, because between the reduction in supply and the decline in demand, the latter has become the dominant factor affecting cement prices. Whether it is the protection of housing or water conservancy construction, the need for cement and even other industries will need to be re-evaluated.

Research shows that the newly started affordable housing project cannot be effectively transferred to investment and construction, and the security housing is currently in the stage of “quick start-up and limited investment”. At the same time, behind the protection of high housing starts, there is a risk of slowdown in the start-up of commercial housing.

This year, the Central Government has requested that 10 million new affordable housing units be built nationwide, and plans to build 36 million new affordable housing units during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. In some places, based on the tasks issued by the Central Government, they further raised their initiative to raise their targets. Monita analysts believe that the total number of affordable housing starts this year may even exceed the target of 10 million sets, but behind the clear goal is a vague progress, it is difficult to make relatively accurate judgments to protect the investment effect of housing investment.

According to the analysis, due to factors such as channels, costs, and real estate control, the willingness of developers to participate in the construction of affordable housing may decline, and the enthusiasm for land purchases will be significantly reduced, and the growth rate of land transfer payments will be at a relatively low level. This has affected the overall size of social housing, and has affected the progress of the construction of social housing. In addition, the rapid growth of affordable housing actually obscured the decline in the growth rate of commercial housing. If we remove the year and this year's protection of housing starts, the cumulative year-on-year growth of new housing starts has begun to decline rapidly in the first half of the year. The growth rate of new housing starts in July has dropped to -9%.