After experiencing the downturn and suffering of 2010, the fertilizer market in 2011 will be presented with a vision of how it will become the industry's first hot spot. The “Agricultural Resources of China” reporter has conducted extensive exchanges with industry experts and entrepreneurs. For the 2011 fertilizer market, from the macroeconomic policy to the internal cause of the industry, most people in the industry believe that the fertilizer market has come through difficult times. The Chinese chemical fertilizer market in 2011 will The trend is rational and stable.

The foundation of food security will not be shaken

The fertilizer industry, which provides 40% of its contribution to food production, plays an important role in ensuring food supply security. As an important supporting agriculture industry, the fertilizer industry will undoubtedly be greatly affected by international grain prices and the country’s “three rural” policies. In the face of global food supply shortages, officials from the Ministry of Agriculture recently stated that the primary goal of China’s agriculture during the 12th Five-Year Plan period is to ensure national food security. While ensuring that the rice bags are well-grounded, farmers' moneybags should be given more attention. During the 11th and 5th Five-Year Plan Period, the average annual real income of peasants will increase by more than 8%. It is still the central goal of the Chinese government to promote the sustained and rapid increase of farmers' income in the next five years.

With the rapid development of China's economy, the process of urbanization in rural areas in the central and western regions will further accelerate. Throughout the urbanization process, the bottom line of the 1.8 billion mu arable land that the Chinese government has always adhered to will be severely challenged. This will undoubtedly exacerbate the government’s concerns about food security, and it will prompt the government to ensure the stability of grain production and the realization of the grain self-sufficiency rate by increasing investment in agriculture and maintaining support for the supporting agriculture industry. It is reported that the No. 1 Document of the Central Committee in 2011 still focused on the issue of agriculture, rural areas and farmers, which undoubtedly laid a solid foundation for the stability of the fertilizer market.

"12th Five-Year Plan" to start a clear direction of the fertilizer industry

The 12th Five-Year Fertilizer Industry Development Plan targets the development and transformation and focuses on the development of slow-release fertilizers, controlled-release fertilizers, and special fertilizers and functional fertilizers. 2011 is the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, and the plan will undoubtedly have an important impact on the development of the industry. Under the guidance of industry policies, the future development model of the fertilizer industry will also shift from "hard input" to "soft expansion." The resources and energy attributes of fertilizer products determine that there will be no major adjustments to the restrictions on fertilizer export policies in 2011, and export tariff policies still focus on maintaining the total supply of domestic fertilizers and market price stability. The adjustment of the export tariff policy for domestic fertilizers will continue to focus on restraining the domestic chemical fertilizer production enterprises from balanced production and surprise exports.

The fertilizer preferential policies that have lasted for many years will not be completely cancelled in 2011. The abolition of fertilizer preferential policies will be combined with direct supplementation of farmers and will be a gradual and gradual process. In order to ensure the safety of food production, the country will continue to retain preferential policies in the fertilizer industry in 2011, such as tax deductions, raw materials, transportation and electricity price concessions. However, as the degree of marketization increases, these preferential policies will gradually weaken.

The industry tends to be rational and the market tends to be stable

In 2011, the pressure on China's fertilizer overcapacity will further increase, and the increase in production capacity and output will decrease. The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" for fertilizer development is to control new projects and develop new varieties of fertilizers. Nitrogen fertilizer is basically not on new projects, and the capacity replacement principle is adopted to control the growth of production capacity. Phosphorus fertilizer will no longer be newly approved for 3-5 years. Continuing investment booms in previous years have led to severe oversupply of fertilizer production capacity, which has led to fierce market competition and low prices in recent years. Estimated investment fever will be effectively controlled since 2011. The Chinese government regards energy conservation, emission reduction, environmental friendliness, and improvement of people's livelihood as an important task for economic development during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. Therefore, the task of energy saving and emission reduction will be heavier in the next five years. High-energy-consuming and high-cost fertilizer production capacity will gradually exit. Fertilizer market.

From the perspective of raw materials, the rising prices of gas prices, coal prices, crude oil, and phosphate rock also support the production costs of fertilizers. At present, the macroeconomic “inflation” reality is also predicting that agricultural prices will not appear in 2011. Obviously fall back. At the same time, there will be new changes in the relationship between manufacturers in 2011. As market competition intensifies, leading distributors will work more closely with manufacturing companies. Manufacturers need to use their networks to build their own product brands, and dealers need to maintain stable quality. Network resources.

A dealer expressed his expectation for 2011: After the introduction of the export tariff policy on fertilizers, it only caused a short-term slight fluctuation in the domestic market. Currently, the tonnage of urea with the trend indicator of the fertilizer market remains at around 1900 yuan, which is basically reasonable. Level. Although the export gate of ammonium phosphate was closed, the domestic market has started one after another and the price is stable. As raw material prices rose, it supported the relatively high price of fertilizer. The increase in the prices of agricultural products and the increase in income of farmers last year have greatly increased the enthusiasm of farmers for planting. This year, the demand for fertilizers will increase, and 2011 will be a good year.

Market speculation:

Nitrogen Fertilizer: The nitrogen fertilizer market will run smoothly in spring 2011: Firstly, due to urea exports in the second half of 2010, domestic supply has been greatly reduced. Second, energy-saving and emission-reduction have limited the production capacity of some manufacturers. Third, coal, electricity and other raw materials The rise in price raised the price of urea; finally, market confidence was hit, and there was a lack of confidence in the market outlook. Although some large circulation companies recently started purchasing orders, they did not see the market as a whole. Therefore, at present, the winter reserves of urea are less than 40%. Coupled with the arrival of the Spring Festival season, railway transportation is subject to certain restrictions. In the next spring plowing season, there will inevitably be a phenomenon of concentrated purchases. The price of urea will also be relatively concentrated due to the availability of goods. The water goes up.

Phosphate Fertilizer: Through the investigation of phosphate fertilizer production enterprises and circulation enterprises, the “Agricultural Resources of China” reporter analyzed the four aspects of the consumer market, production status, light storage, and supply and demand contradictions in light of the specific conditions of the market, and concluded that the market will be overall this spring. Stable, phosphorus fertilizer prices may not rise sharply after the market. However, due to the current low social inventory and the imminent arrival of the Spring Festival, the spring season may see tight supply, and prices may rise slightly.

Potash: The factors affecting the domestic potash fertilizer market in 2011 will mainly come from the international market, domestic policies and market confidence. In 2010, international potash fertilizer demand and imports have been steadily increasing. At the end of 2010, Brazil and Southeast Asia increased their import volume, thus raising the international price of potash fertilizer; the government continued to increase energy-saving emission reduction efforts, fuel, coal and electricity and labor costs. At the same time, the increase will prompt companies to adjust their prices for guaranteed profits; the spring plowing and fertilizer will be approaching, and compound fertilizers will be concentrated after the year. Therefore, the potash price in 2011 will increase year-on-year.

Compound Fertilizer: A review of the compound fertilizer market in 2010 was supported by high-priced raw materials and the overall price was stable. What will happen to the market in 2011? Through interviews, manufacturers believe that raw material prices and market distribution are the key to determining the trend of compound fertilizers. Circulation companies are concerned about the price of goods and the adequacy of goods on the market. Although the perspectives of concern are different, their judgments are highly consistent: In 2011, the fertilizer market will be stable and slightly volatile.