Under the impact of the electronic steel plate and the diving phenomenon on Monday, the domestic steel price has been reduced, and the prices of major varieties such as sheet and wire spiral have fallen significantly. This shows that the situation of continuous consolidation since September has been broken, and the price of basic steel products has begun to decline, and this decline will continue in the short term. At the same time, spot transactions remained weak, and terminal demand continued to show a slight downward trend, indicating that the current domestic steel market had a weak overall trend. According to this judgment, this low demand in the second half of September will hardly materially change. Steel prices It may also accelerate the decline in the late period.

First, the European debt crisis has become a major factor in causing pessimism. On September 17, U.S. financial center Wall Street in New York met with a large-scale demonstration. Demonstrators threatened to occupy Wall Street. They stated that their intention was to oppose U.S. political power trading, bipartisan political disputes, and social injustice. It is one of the largest demonstrations New York has encountered in recent years. On September 18th, Austrian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Spindlinger stated that due to Greece’s heavy debt, there is a possibility of bankruptcy. While Italy’s right-wing government expressed its hope that China would adopt a large-scale purchase of government bonds to help it weather the financial crisis, Standard & Poor’s suddenly announced the downgrade of Italian sovereign debt on the 19th, which worsened the debt crisis in Europe and made Europe and the US The economic outlook added uncertainties. The signs of Greece’s breach of contract highlighted the sudden escalation of the European debt crisis. The turmoil in the US financial situation has intensified and the global financial market is facing an impact.

Affected by the poor external disk financial conditions, domestic commodities showed a declining trend after the market opened on Monday. The steel market also experienced a trend of diving. The market for hot-rolled electronic disks and rebars increased, and the market accelerated at a lower speed in the afternoon. Quotes have come down, and the panic among merchants in some regions has intensified, and the willingness to sell at low prices has increased. With the rapid decline in prices, merchants’ enthusiasm for shipping is stronger than that of procurement, but actual transactions are extremely light. As the atmosphere on the market has accumulated and pessimism has spread, the market lacks favorable stability factors. Therefore, prices will hardly improve in the short term and will continue to be dominated by weaker shocks.

Second, the central bank’s continued tightening of currency is a major factor in the tight liquidity of the market. On September 13, the central bank issued a one-year central bank bill of 10 billion yuan in price bidding, and the central bank conducted a 110 billion yuan repurchase on the same day. Steel traders mentioned that banks are currently stuck to a lot of credit lines. This phenomenon has not been the case in the past, and this has caused the market to be tight. Some steel traders have begun to repatriate funds due to the expiry of 3-5 months of the beginning of the year, stepping up the pace of repayment. The traders or terminal companies relying on small and medium-sized banks to provide ** are even more struggling. Multiple pressures are superimposed and Chinese SMEs usher in a new round of shocks. According to reports, under the background of increasing domestic inflationary pressures and tightening monetary policy in the country, more than 100,000 private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises in Jilin Province are facing problems of shortage of funds, shortage of raw materials, and shortage of employment. This shows that the problems caused by current financial constraints are even greater. Outstanding, reflected in the steel market, the tight liquidity of the market makes the business further bearish outlook.

Since the central bank raised interest rates several times later and raised the RRR, the cost of funds has gradually increased. Industry sources mentioned that the operating company's pallet tariffs for small and medium-sized traders almost doubled from the beginning of 2010. Due to the recent limited increase in steel prices, and the high cost of receiving goods, the removal of labor costs, taxes, etc., the risk far exceeds the profits, and the construction of warehouse stocks instead of making more losses, is so inhibiting the majority of small and medium-sized traders The sales of goods have always made no improvement in market transactions, and it can be said that the high cost of funds has inhibited the active level of interim trade.

Third, raw material prices may fluctuate at a later stage, and their support to steel prices may be weakened. The current iron ore prices are still running at a high level. 63.5% of the powder is reported outside at 185-187 US dollars/ton. It is expected that the ore will stop at the high point of 192 US dollars during the year. At present, there are many port resources, and Caofeidian Port has exceeded 50 million tons of imported iron ore this year, reaching 50,405,800 tons, an increase of 39.52% over the same period of last year. It is expected that by the end of this year, imported iron ore will exceed 80 million tons. At present, the imported iron ore market shows a weak trend. Affected by the high price of external disk prices, traders have limited profits and do not dare to stockpile a large amount of goods. They have a more wait-and-see attitude towards the market outlook. Considering that the price trend of raw materials such as iron ore has a certain lag for the steel market, it is expected that after the price of steel fell for 1-2 weeks, the domestic ore prices will follow the trend of falling back, so the cost support will fall during the entire steel price. It appears very fragile, and the analysis of the current market trend, the short-term decline is difficult, the spot steel prices continue to fall.

Fourth, downstream demand continued to be sluggish under the influence of capital tightening and policies. Under the continuous housing control policy, especially the introduction of the second- and third-tier cities' purchase restriction orders, the entire real estate industry has been severely hit, and the overall market has entered a depressed state. From the information released by the decision-making layer, the macroeconomic adjustment has not been implemented. Relax, and this trend is unlikely to change during the year. At the same time, industries such as automobiles, machinery manufacturing, and household electrical appliances continued to falter, and to a certain extent, they also restricted the demand for plates and other varieties. In the early period, high-margin construction steel products had already been put into heavy production, leading to a slight increase in the increase in the level of snail inventories. The pressure may be further highlighted and it remains to be seen whether prices will remain firm.

At the same time, the domestic monetary tightening policy will remain unchanged until the end of the year, so the forthcoming fourth quarter will face a more complex economic environment. The risk of Greece’s debt default has increased sharply in the international community, and debt in the Eurozone has remained high. The European Union’s debt has returned to default risk. If it does not achieve significant improvement, the international economic situation will be seriously affected, and commodities may face greater turmoil in the fourth quarter. . Under the influence of many negative factors, the domestic steel market may still maintain its downtrend in late September, and may see a short-term rebound or sideways behavior after XI. However, with the turmoil in the international financial market and the manufacturing industry entering a recession, domestic steel prices may still have some room for decline.