It is understood that in September and October of 2012, the peak season of the “Jin 9 Silver 10” downstream of methanol was not started as scheduled, thus constraining the high rebound in methanol prices, resulting in a weakening of the momentum of methanol's continued rise. Currently, it is currently at the 2800 line.

First, the release of fierce production capacity Although the domestic economy is weak, demand is not to force, but still failed to hinder the release of new production capacity, from January to August the cumulative production of methanol was 16.8211 million tons, an increase of 30.2% over the previous year, the cumulative output increased by 3,902,600 tons , easily filling the gap of 659,300 tons of imports in the first eight months. Since September, the operating rate of enterprises has continued to increase, which is currently around 65%. The domestic apparent methanol consumption amounted to a year-on-year increase of 19% from January to August, which was a substantial increase from 2011. However, the increase in output growth was still difficult, and there was no substantial recovery in consumption.

Second, the sluggish consumer demand or downstream is based on expectations for the “Golden 9 Silver 10” peak season. Recently, the downstream manufacturers have actively made up the inventory, the price of formaldehyde has stabilized, and the operating rate has continued to increase. However, the real estate market will continue to tighten in the future market. Still lower, the demand for adhesives is limited, and the destocking process of formaldehyde manufacturers is slow. The acetic acid market is slightly optimistic. In the fourth quarter, the production capacity of PTA (7882,-18.00,-0.23%) will continue to be put into use. Hengli Petrochemical's second phase of 2.2 million tons of equipment is planned to open in November-December; Yisheng Hainan’s 2 million tons of equipment is also It is planned to start in October-November, and at the same time, the production capacity of ethyl acetate will also increase, which will increase the demand for acetic acid to some extent. DME demand follow-up is limited, and the oversupply coupled with the relatively weak economy, and in some areas, intensive monitoring of dimethyl ether incorporation of liquefied gas, the market upward resistance.

Third, during the peak season, prices have advanced. After a seasonal analysis of the spot price of methanol in East China, we discovered that the “Golden 9 Silver 10” peak season can indeed stimulate the rebound of methanol prices, but with the end of the peak season, the price of methanol will fall back. It is expected that the price will fall in November and December. The price of methanol will obviously go down. At the end of the year, there will be a wave of short-term rally because of the pre-holiday stocking demand. However, the performance of methanol in the first three quarters of this year was weaker than that of the same period of last year. The upward oscillation in previous years was also replaced by the sideways consolidation of this year. The weaker demand has exerted more pressure on the price of methanol. This year's peak season has not been able to start since the previous two years. As the current economic recovery process is slow and the monetary policy has not yet seen a substantial loose, the substantial demand for methanol downstream needs to be improved. The weaker oscillation may be four. The main tone of the quarter.

Fourth, the economic recovery still needs time to end in September, China's PMI value dropped four times in a row, the economy is showing signs of bottoming, but is still in the 50% below the Rongrong watershed. Although the US and European data are weak, although the QE3 was launched, the impact on the economy is limited; the European Central Bank resorts to the OMT bond purchase program, and the implementation effect still needs to be verified. The euro zone's manufacturing industry is still shrinking. The weakness of the leading indicators in Germany and France has increased the euro area. Pessimistic expectations of economic growth.

Technically, after the main contract ME1301 rebounded and oscillated at the 2800 line, although there was also a big ups and downs in the intermediation, it still did not move out of the previous oscillation range. Under the background of no significant improvement in the fundamentals, the methanol price will Oscillation in the 2750-2850 range.