Domestic mineral grade is not high equity mine to help crack iron mine puzzle
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China is the largest buyer of international iron ore
Since 2000, with the rapid development of the economy, China's demand for iron ore has increased significantly, domestic production has not been able to meet demand, and steel companies need to import large quantities of iron ore. Therefore, the number of imported iron ore in China has increased year by year, and imports account for demand. The proportion of the volume has also gradually increased. In 1999, imported iron ore accounted for about 28% of total demand; in 2008, China imported iron ore to 44.414 million tons, up 15.8% year-on-year, accounting for 58.9% of total demand. China has become the world's largest. Iron ore importing country. China's iron ore procurement comes from 18 countries, more than 80% of which come from Australia, India and Brazil. Due to the high dependence of China's iron ore on foreign countries, this has led foreign iron ore giants to use monopoly resources to raise prices to make China's imported iron ore prices rise sharply. China’s share of ore imports from Australia and Pakistan has decreased, while the proportion of imports from India has increased.
In 2008, China imported a total of 443.66 million tons of iron ore, accounting for 52% of the global seaborne iron ore. In the same period, Japan imported about 105.62 million tons, accounting for about 12.3%; South Korea imported 0.4954 billion tons, accounting for about 6 percent. %. By 2009, China imported 627.78 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 41.6% compared with 4.4345 billion tons in 2008, indicating that China's steel industry's demand for iron ore increased strongly in 2009. From January to August 2010, China's iron ore imports were 405.04 million tons, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year. At the end of the third quarter, energy-saving emission reductions, limited production and power cuts will directly affect China's steel output, which in turn affects China's iron ore imports. It is unlikely that China's imports of iron ore will increase significantly in 2010.
Complex mines with rich ore and multiple ore bodies are “difficult to serveâ€
China has a stable self-sufficiency rate of domestically produced mines. In 2008, China's iron ore production reached 824 million tons. In 2009, China's iron ore production was 880 million tons. However, the average grade of iron ore in China has been declining, more than 30% a few years ago, and by 2009 it has been between 27 and 28%. If China's 2008 iron ore output is converted to the global average grade, the iron content is 63-64% iron ore, which is 366 million tons.
China's iron ore resources have two characteristics. First, there are many poor ore, and the reserves of poor ore account for 80% of the total reserves. Second, there are more complex ores with multi-element symbiosis. In addition, the ore body is complex; some iron ore deposits are hematite and the lower part is magnetite. China's iron ore is widely distributed and uneven. Various types of iron deposits of various sizes are found in the northeast, north, south, east, southwest and northwest regions. China's major steel supply bases are mainly located in the northeast, north and east China. . In view of China's geological conditions, most of its iron ore is low grade ore, which largely determines the structure of China's iron ore industry. There are as many as 8,000 iron ore mines in China and a large number of iron ore companies.
China needs to rectify the domestic iron ore market, form a large and large-scale major iron ore enterprise group centered on the region, and optimize comprehensive resources such as logistics, people flow, capital flow and information flow. Strengthen industry concentration, learn from the experience of only a few large enterprises in the steel industry in developed countries, reduce vicious competition, and change the situation that Baosteel, a large steel company, does not occupy much iron ore resources.
China's domestic mine self-sufficiency rate has remained at around 50% for many years. In recent years, China's iron ore resource supply capacity has improved significantly. The output of iron ore raw ore has increased from 260 million tons in 2003 to 880 million tons in 2009. The self-sufficiency rate of domestic iron ore has increased steadily.
In 2009, under the impact of shrinking steel demand and the low price of iron ore imported ore, although some mining companies could not withstand the pressure of sales prices approaching the cost, they stopped production and stopped production, but the cost of domestic mines was 450 to 550. Between the yuan, domestic mines still have the ability to increase mining efforts and increase the supply of domestic mines. The iron ore design capacity under construction and planning is 480 million tons/year. However, China's dependence on imported minerals is still high. In 2009, the import dependence reached 69.62%.
The Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute compiled the "2010 China Steel Market Analysis and Forecasting Second Quarter Report". It is estimated that the domestic iron ore output will increase by 30% in 2010, the raw ore output will reach 1.15 billion tons, the finished iron ore volume will be around 420 million tons, and the second half of the year. The plant's dependence on imported ore will be weakened. However, it is still difficult for China's steel industry to rely on domestic mines to maintain production.
Changxie Mine has risen 5 times and is in a dilemma
Since 2000, the world iron ore long-term agreement price (FOB) has increased five-fold, and the Australian Hamersley powder mine has risen from 27.35 cents/dry ton in 2000 to 201 cents/ton ton in 2008. Brazil's Vale's pellets rose from around 50 cents in 2001 to 220 cents in 2008. The price of iron ore in India has also soared. The price index of iron ore has remained basically between 100 and 200 in the decade from 1994 to 2003. It has risen sharply since 2004, from 127 to August 2008. 1293.7, an increase of ten times. In contrast, the CRU's global steel price index for the same period was only 90 in January 2000. It hit a peak of 292.8 in August 2008 and has now fallen back to 150. In comparison, the price increase of iron ore is obviously too large.
With the gradual increase in China's iron ore imports, the average price of imported iron ore is also rising. Before 2003, the average price of imported iron ore in China was basically maintained at around US$30/ton. Since then, with the rapid growth of demand, prices have risen sharply. In 2004, the average import price of iron ore in China reached US$60/ton, doubled year-on-year. With the long-term agreement price of iron ore rising by 71.5% in 2005, the increase in 2006 and 2007 has decreased, reaching 19% and 9.5% respectively. In 2007, the average price of imported iron ore in China was about US$88/ton. The price of iron ore negotiations in 2008 rose sharply by 65%. The average CIF price of China's imported iron ore reached the highest of 154 US dollars in August, and the price fell in the fourth quarter. The average import price at the end of 2008 was about 90 dollars. Since 2010, the production costs of Chinese steel producers have continued to rise, and steel prices in the domestic market have continued to fall. In the first half of the year, the average CIF price of imported iron ore in China was US$111.5/ton, up 46.42% over the same period of last year. In June, it reached US$139.85/ton, up 105.27% over the same period of the previous year.
The increase in global iron ore demand has also led to a substantial increase in the export volume of iron ore exports, which has led to a continuous increase in sea freight rates. The transportation cost from Tubarão Port in Brazil to Beilun in China was basically consolidating between US$5-15/ton between 2000 and 2002. It began to rise slowly in 2003. In 2007, it experienced a crazy rising period from US$35 at the beginning of the year. Around ton, it has risen to about $80/ton at the end of the year, and the highest has reached $98/ton. In May 2008, it reached a record high of $107/ton, up 35% from the beginning of 2008.
China's steel industry "going out to sea to find mines" to crack iron ore puzzles
Luo Bingsheng, executive vice president of China Iron and Steel Association, said that the overseas iron ore equity mine currently under construction in China is roughly 190 million tons of production capacity, equivalent to 30% of China's imports. He believes that the target is 60%. This means that after a proactive layout in recent years, China's overseas equity mines have reached a certain scale from the original. However, many projects are currently in the exploration stage and have not been put into production. The proportion of China's overseas equity mines still needs to continue to increase, 30%, which is still far below the 60% ratio of European and Japanese equity mines.
Japan's Mitsui & Co., Ltd. and ITOCHU Corporation have accelerated the pace of acquiring iron ore rights overseas, and plans to increase it by about one time in five years. In fiscal year 2010 (April 1, 2010 to March 31, 2011), the total output of iron ore rights held by Mitsui & Co., Ltd., ITOCHU Corporation, Mitsubishi Corporation and Sumitomo Corporation was estimated to be 69.3 million tons. It will increase to 135 million tons by the end of FY2015. Japan's four major trading companies mainly expand their interests by increasing investment in overseas mining companies such as Australia, Brazil, Chile and Canada, and selling iron ore to domestic steel companies and Asian steel companies.
China's annual supply of iron ore with an iron ore volume of more than 10 million tons is Baosteel, Sinosteel, Valin Steel, Angang, Shougang and Tonghuan. In addition, Shagang, Tangshan Iron and Steel, Ma Steel and Wuhan Iron and Steel jointly obtained iron ore of 12 million tons per year. Most of China's equity mines are located in Australia. More than 100 million tons of equity iron ore resource potential, about 80% concentrated in the Australian region. These equity mineral resources are mainly obtained through equity acquisitions, asset acquisitions, joint ventures, joint ventures, etc.
China has entered a critical period of industrialization and urbanization, and mineral demand is very strong. Despite the favorable geological conditions of mineralization in China and the huge potential of mineral resources, there are still some difficulties and uncertainties in achieving mine-seeking breakthroughs in a short period of time. This will enable China to establish a stable mineral resource supply base overseas to ensure the safety of China's economy before the peak demand for resources reaches its peak. In this context, it is particularly urgent to speed up the formulation of overseas mineral exploration strategies.
Although it is important to control overseas resources, it is also necessary to prevent falling into the trap. The high price of iron ore has spurred the determination of Chinese steel companies to enter overseas. However, there are two risks for Chinese companies to invest abroad: one is price risk and the other is management risk. In terms of price risk, the ore market will fluctuate more frequently in the future. Steel enterprises will not only face the upward cost pressure of the ore price, but also the fluctuation of iron ore market. After the short-term agreement is formed, the agreement mine will also face the market risk higher than the spot mine. In terms of management risk, Chinese companies have less experience in overseas management. Chinese enterprises often only look at mineral reserves when accounting, and the legal system, manpower system and environmental system of the international market are often ignored.
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