From the shock of the new policy of the end of May 2018 to the industry, to the buffer brought by the follow-up policy callback, and then to the good signal released by the private enterprise symposium, the mood of PV practitioners changes with the outside in just half a year. Ups and downs, the past 2018 is destined to be unforgettable for the photovoltaic industry.

For the photovoltaic industry in the midst of change, what remains unchanged is the huge space for future development. Liu Hanyuan, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Tongwei Group, has publicly quoted the relevant conclusions of the McKinsey Global Institute. He believes that China's photovoltaic industry has been riding the dust, leaving the United States behind, and firmly grasping the development of the global photovoltaic industry.

However, what is currently in front of the industry is a series of "growth pains" that are difficult to avoid after "weaning".

To develop a cheap market, on the one hand, it needs the industry's own technological innovation. On the other hand, it needs the government and the power grid to remove industry subsidies, difficult grid access, difficult financing, and high non-technical costs. In addition, the system and mechanism need to be fully implemented. Innovative policies such as full-guaranteed acquisitions, mandatory quota systems, green certificates, and electricity transactions.

Relevant policies such as PV scale indicators, electricity price policies, and “parity online” demonstration bases, which are specific to 2019, have not yet been released.

Emergency brake and buffer

In 2017, the domestic PV market situation is gratifying. The newly installed capacity exceeded 53GW year-on-year, an increase of more than 50%. As of the end of December, the cumulative installed capacity exceeded 130GW, and both new and cumulative installed capacity ranked first in the world.

Therefore, on many occasions, the "imperial price of the Internet is not far away" is getting louder and louder. However, when it was called the most stringent photovoltaic policy in the industry, the “5·31” New Deal, it still brought a big impact to the industry.

The above policy requires that the construction of ordinary photovoltaic power stations will not be arranged for the time being in 2018. Before the state starts the construction of ordinary power stations without the issuance of documents, local governments should not arrange the construction of ordinary power stations that require state subsidies in any form; distributed photovoltaic projects only have 10GW in 2018. Incorporate indicators into the scale.

In addition to strict control of the scale, the "5·31" New Deal also weakened the subsidies, and lowered the benchmark electricity price for the three types of resource areas: from the date of the self-issued text, the newly-input photovoltaic power station benchmarking grid price is reduced by 0.05 yuan per kWh. The on-grid tariffs for Class I, Class II, and Class III resource areas are adjusted to 0.5 yuan, 0.6 yuan, and 0.7 yuan per kWh (including tax).

Although there are certain psychological preparations for the strict control indicators in the industry, the time of “boots” landing and the degree of strict control have exceeded expectations.

An industry analyst who did not want to sign once said to the First Financial News: "The biggest reason for policy adjustment is that the financial subsidy pressure is too large, the scale and speed of industry development exceeds the expectations of managers. The financial subsidy is the industrial chain. The main component of the main profit."

Reflected at the enterprise level, many small and medium-sized PV manufacturing enterprises that focus only on the domestic market are facing the dilemma of suspension of production and even bankruptcy. The decline in component prices has also put the industry's leading companies under a small profit.

In the first three quarters of 2018, polysilicon, wafers, cells, components have different levels of an increase in the production providers. However, from the overall situation of the industry, the sales prices of the main products of the upstream silicon materials, batteries, components and other links have led to an increase in production but no increase in revenue.

Among the 14 listed companies in the photovoltaic industry sorted by the First Financial Reporter, more than half of the company's net profit in the first three quarters fell year-on-year, and four other companies had negative net profit. Among the companies with a year-on-year increase in net profit in the first three quarters, there was also a decline in single-season performance.

There are also insiders of photovoltaic leading companies who bluntly told reporters: "Although it is still able to maintain production and operation, if it is longer, it will not benefit the technological innovation and sustainable development of the entire industry, and the photovoltaic industry that is closed to subsidies cannot pass electricity. Opening a window in institutional reform is tantamount to being locked into a small black house."

"Photovoltaic industry 5.31 new policy brought crisis to the industry, new energy listed companies continued to fall, the market value lost more than 300 billion. Many companies were forced to stop production, shut down production assets exceeded 200 billion, the industry was hit hard; second, non-technical factors pushing up the cost of domestic PV, PV subsidy arrears universal time in more than two years, exacerbated the financial pressure; in addition, the photovoltaic industry policy is difficult to meet the needs of China's energy transformation "difficult for the photovoltaic industry at this stage, Liu Hanyuan summary More intuitive.

To ease the pressure of business areas, companies are actively called scale index, and then ushered in the buffer policy, industry is considered evidence of the existence of recovery.

On October 8, the National Development and Reform Commission's price division organization included Guodiantou, Huaneng, Huadian, Sanxia New Energy, Jingke, GCL, Longji, Tianhe, Sunny Technology, Linuo Photovoltaic, Tongchuang Huanda, and Shandong Dahai New Energy. The four state-owned power generation enterprises, four photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises and four distributed photovoltaic business development enterprises held the first photovoltaic power price policy symposium after the New Deal was issued.

On the evening of October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on the Explanation of Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2018", which was filed and started construction before May 31 (inclusive), and on June 30 The legal household natural-purpose distributed photovoltaic power generation project put into operation before the date (including) is included in the scope of nationally recognized scale management, while the benchmark on-grid tariff and power subsidy standards remain unchanged.

“This mainly solves the problem of the indicator period of household PV for one month. The “Notice” clearly includes the households who have not started the grid to be included in the scope of subsidies, which alleviates the doubts of ordinary consumers.” China New Energy Power Investment Union Secretary-General Peng Wei told the First Financial Reporter.

Then the industry's positive signals are more intensive. On November 2nd, the National Energy Administration held a symposium to release positive signals. It believes that photovoltaic is a clean energy source supported by the state and will support it in the future. It will never change. It is clear that it will not push the cheap online process across the board. Before entering the comprehensive “subsidy subsidy”, the National Energy Administration will still guarantee a certain subsidy installed capacity every year and promote the further decline of subsidy intensity; the approved households use photovoltaics to manage separately, and differentiate them from the industrial and commercial distribution to give more support.

Expansion and slimming

The industry fluctuations that emerged after the New Deal can be understood as the pain of transition from the policy subsidy period to the marketization period. Some insiders told the First Financial News that the photovoltaic industry will enter the market regulation stage, although there will be repeated reshuffles and fluctuations, but it will be more regular and more moderate.

In the reshuffle period, in order to obtain a better "ranking" and to resist the impact of the industry's cyclical, the company's coping styles are not the same: some have made the choice of contrarian expansion, hoping to carry out the entire industry chain The layout of the company also reduces the burden of cost and expenses by divesting surplus capacity, and the company is looking for a second main business, in order to form a linkage with the original business.

In January 2018, Longji, a manufacturer of monocrystalline silicon photovoltaic products, released the "Development Plan for Monocrystalline Wafer Business 2018-2020", stating that it will strive to produce monocrystalline silicon wafers at the end of 2018 based on the 150 GW wafer capacity at the end of 2017. It reached 28GW and reached 45GW by the end of 2020.

The above objectives have not been adjusted due to changes in the external environment, and the pace of expansion against the trend continues.

The announcement of Longji shares on August 3th will show that the total amount of funds will not exceed 3.9 billion yuan in the form of allotment, which will be used for the annual output of 5GW high-efficiency single crystal battery project of Ningxia Leye and 5GW high-efficiency single crystal module of Luzhou Leye. Projects and supplementary liquidity. On December 25, the public offering of shares of Longji shares was approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission.

Unlike the debt expansion of Longji, GCL-Poly has improved its profitability through slimming.

On the evening of December 28, GCL-Poly issued a notice on the sale of subsidiaries and profit warning, saying that it will sell its shares in Suzhou Kezhen Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. for RMB 850 million to Liaoning Huajun Asset Management Co., Ltd., and sell the expected assets of the sliced ​​surplus assets. The revenue was approximately 446 million yuan.

Another GCL-listed company, GCL, is exploring the second main business. GCL integration hoped to use the power battery as a new profit point on the PV industry. After a year of exploration, the power battery did not bring substantial contribution to its performance. In the third quarter of this year, GCL Integrated adjusted its second main business strategic plan in the third quarterly report and turned to explore the feasibility of semiconductor projects.

During the interview, the reporter learned that GCL Group will start from the upstream silicon materials to the whole industry chain of silicon wafers, components and systems in 2019, and promote the “subsidy” process of photovoltaic power generation through technological advancement.

Zhu Xiangshan, chairman of GCL Group, said that in 2019, he will fully enter the field of super charging stations for electric vehicles and start the operation of electric vehicles, especially cutting into electric motor freight, hoping to extend the mobile energy and smart energy. Fragmentation technologies will be cascaded through the Internet of Things and energy Internet technologies.

For many PV companies listed overseas, 2018 is also a year of queuing back to A shares.

On July 17, 2018, JA Solar officially delisted from NASDAQ. It became the third Chinese PV company to withdraw from the US stock market after Trina Solar and Yingli Green Energy. A week later, an announcement was issued to announce the backdoor.

In December, CITIC Construction Investment completed the listing counseling work for Jingke Power in accordance with the counseling agreement, and Jingke Power has already issued the listing conditions. Jingke Power is the same company as Jingke Energy Holdings Co., Ltd., the world's largest component manufacturer. It is also a photovoltaic company that was consciously privatized through the spin-off business and plans to list in China.

"At present, A-shares are in a process of volatility, and domestic funds are also very tight. For companies that have delisted at a higher price in the early years, the current return to A-shares is not a good time and will face the test of the capital chain." In some cases, returning to A is the only way out. Although the valuation will not be very high, the establishment of a financing platform in China is also important for the future development of these enterprises. Peng Yu said.

Another layer of consideration back to A is a long-term optimistic view of the domestic PV industry.

“Jingao Solar Energy Co., Ltd. and Qi Baofang are all real-estate industries. Returning to A-shares also wants to continue to expand the photovoltaic industry through domestic capital market forces.” Some industry professionals familiar with the above issues told reporters: “Although the domestic PV situation is tight However, the trend of global development of clean energy is unchanged. After all, the photovoltaic industry is one of the few industries in China that can participate in international competition and lead in industrialization."

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