On January 18 and January 19, copper continued to rise. On the 19th, London Copper hit a new high of US$9,781, and then it plunged to US$9787. On the 20th, Shanghai Copper continued its decline, and Shanghai Copper’s main contract fell to RMB71,610. As a result, Masukura's two consecutive days of upward evolution has become a false breakthrough, the market outlook may continue to callback, the recent concern 9400-70000 support.

This week is the week of macroeconomic data. A large amount of data has guided the market. China’s CPI in December last year was 4.6% year-on-year, 3.3% for the year, and 10.3% for GDP in 2010. This shows that China’s economic recovery is in good condition, and the world’s engine is unrealistic, but inflationary pressures are higher than expected. PPI for the whole year was 5.5% year-on-year, 5.9% year-on-year in December, and up 0.7% from the previous month, which may imply that the year-on-year CPI of the first half of 2011 will still be running at a level above 4%. This inflationary pressure will prompt the Chinese government to measure Both aspects of prices continue to adjust for liquidity. On January 14th, the Central Bank raised the reserve requirement ratio for the first time in the new year by 0.5%. It happened to be implemented today. It was a "quantity" adjustment. The market expects that the central bank will increase the interest rate by 0.50 percentage points from the second quarter. "Price" above to adjust the market liquidity. The expectation of continued tightening of domestic liquidity has undoubtedly effectively controlled the speculative atmosphere. The stock market has taken the lead in pressure, and it has been falling for several days in a row. Commodities, especially industrial products, have been dragged down accordingly and have followed suit. At the same time, US housing data last night showed that US housing starts fell by 4.3% in December, but US building permits rose by 16.7% in December, which means that U.S. real estate is still sluggish, but it may recover in the future. The overall macro news made the copper market under pressure.

The messages of the fundamentals are staggered. WBMS announced that the global copper market had a shortage of 97,000 tons from January to November 2010, and from January to October, the global copper market had an oversupply of 68,000 tons. This shows that the global copper market is in short supply. In the short term, the spot price of Lun Copper's spot premium has been expanded, investment demand is still very strong, LME copper stocks have been increasing or decreasing, and demand has slowed down during the off-season. The Shanghai copper spot held firm but the discounted water expanded. Although the holders are reluctant to sell, there is a thicker atmosphere of downstream consumption. Especially in the winter of this year, many workers in small and medium-sized processing plants go home early to celebrate the New Year. The demand for stocking before the regular holidays is likely to be postponed until the holiday season. At the same time, we must pay attention to the fact that high-priced copper has boosted the substitution effect and the voice of “aluminum substitute copper” in the household appliance industry has quietly emerged. Therefore, the recent slack season consumption does not support the high price of copper.

In general, the copper market is still optimistic about the mid-to-long term, which is helped by the limited growth of upstream supply, China’s investment in infrastructure investment, investment demand, and the recovery of demand in Europe and the United States. The tension in the upper reaches of the city is an eternal topic in the copper market. The Chilean copper mine has frequent incidents. The long-term expansion of production capacity in the copper mining cycle is slow, and it also faces a decline in copper taste. The recent failure of the Collahuasi copper mine in Chile due to the occurrence of port accidents was not a result of the damage to the copper production and was therefore only a short-term fixability effect. China entered the "12th Five-Year Plan" period. State Grid claimed that the fixed assets investment in 2011 will reach 322 billion yuan, of which the investment in power grids will reach 292.5 billion yuan; at the same time, China will invest heavily in railway construction during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. It is estimated that the total investment will reach 700 billion yuan each year. These infrastructure projects are in an expanded state and are large copper consumers. The performance of copper spot ETF products in the new year will have a significant impact on copper prices. As early as November-December last year, the copper copper price was hitting new highs due to the shortage of copper ETP products. If the 2011 copper ETF product is not as active as expected, it will undoubtedly lead to a correction of copper prices. Finally, the prospect of a bottoming out of the global economy has been greatly weakened. The developed countries have also taken steps to recover. Although it may still be slow, the recovery of the macro economy will inevitably bring about a rebound in demand for copper. From the recent upsurge in European and U.S. manufacturing PMI data, , Manufacturing will be one of the engines of economic recovery in developed countries.

Technically, the long-term upward trend of copper remained unchanged. The London copper support was at the 9400 line and resistance was near the 10,000 mark. However, the recent high level sideways made the Stochastic break away, showing the need for corrections; LME copper positions have continued to decline for two days, reflecting profitable demand. From yesterday's Shanghai copper trend point of view, CU1104 opened around a narrow range of 71,700 after the first round of oscillation, open positions to reduce 16,600 hands, the volume of general, the overall performance of the long stop loss appearance, lack of confidence in short selling. The author believes that the lack of support for copper in the pre-holiday period still has the need to fall back. Investors operate cautiously, even if they are optimistic about the market outlook, the trend should not be too early to enter the market, short-term investors can capture the callback band.