In recent days, news of the state's adjustment of export tariffs on fertilizers has spread in multiple versions. From the initial period of increasing export season to the subsequent unified tax rate of 30% to 40%, there is no adjustment to maintain the current peak season rate, and even shorten the off-season tariff. Period, nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer manufacturers, distributors, investors have shown a high degree of concern.

China Chemical Network analyst Zhang Ming believes that this type of performance by market participants reflects the lack of strength driven by market positive factors. Faced with the booming international market, domestic manufacturers and distributors have to enter the cold season, and they are unwilling. Since the end of July and early August, under the environment of energy conservation and emission reduction, various provinces and regions have adopted simple power cuts and power outage measures, which have brought about the following effects. First, sales of generators have increased significantly, and second, the supply of diesel oil has become tight. It is a sharp decline in fertilizer stocks. Originally, the implementation of the winter light storage plan could spur the market that will soon be silent, but the tragedy of the winter storage in 2009 is still vivid, and dealers have been reluctant to sell it, making the fertilizer market in the fourth quarter of this year a little less attractive. However, the Chinese market that has just returned from the economic crisis must not be short of explosions. It coincides with the time when domestic supplies of fertilizers are low and demand is small. The news of export tariff adjustments should come out in time.

The tariff should not be adjusted?

Zhang Ming holds a firm support attitude. The reason is very simple. China's nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer, and compound fertilizer production capacity have been in serious excess. The gas turbine nitrogen fertilizer manufacturers experienced two consecutive natural gas price increases in 2010. The raw material coal fat from the coal and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturers is less than 800 yuan/ton, and the current Around 1,400 yuan/ton, the rapid rise in costs, the corresponding stability in demand and even local shrinkage, the irrationality of the fertilizer industry has been exposed. Fertilizer as a relatively special product is related to China's food security and national economy and people's livelihood. In the face of such a chaotic state of the industry, the state will inevitably introduce some policies to induce the industry to return to the track of sound development. Since the beginning of October, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have successively convened enterprise forums, hoping that relevant companies can strengthen self-discipline in the industry and give priority to ensuring supply in the domestic market. However, huge export profits have made none of these “related companies” able to maintain self-discipline in the industry. In the first three quarters of this year, China’s urea output exceeded 4 million tons, and DAP’s annual demand amounted to 6 million tons to 8 million tons. Among them, 60% are used in spring and 40% in autumn. It is expected that the output of diammonium will exceed 3 million tons in the fourth quarter. By the end of October to the end of the year, even if about 1 million tons of diammonium phosphate is re-exported (in kind), the domestic supply will still have more than 6 million tons of surplus. From this point of view, the tariff should be adjusted, but how to adjust it requires extensive consultation.

When will the tariff be adjusted?

At the very least not now! Zhang Ming believes that if the export tariff adjustment in November this year, the timing is not appropriate, and there are suspicions of quick success. In fact, the recent turmoil in the tariff adjustment theory, the culprit is still due to the energy-saving emission reduction started in July, limiting power cuts, power cuts. The country has made the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction to the world and it should be resolutely completed. This is a responsible country's due credit. However, the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” has a long period of five years. In addition to several famous energy-saving and emission-reduction sites in 2006-2007, there is no long-term, sustainable development, and high consumption rate throughout the country. Measures that can reasonably adjust the industry. The fertilizer industry is even more so, at the end of 2009. The domestic nitrogen fertilizer production capacity has reached 63 million tons by the beginning of 2010, and the production capacity of phosphate fertilizers is 20 million tons. There are five or six thousand fertilizer and compound fertilizer manufacturers. In 2010, well-known domestic companies, including Hubei Yihua and Yuntianhua, all have plans to expand their production. This is a step-by-step strategy to gradually eliminate small brands, large manufacturers, and decentralized structures with large brands, large groups, and centralized types. However, local protectionism will surely hinder this process of marketization. China's nitrogenous fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer output will grow in disorder in the coming decades. At this moment, adjusting export tariffs and forcing companies to guarantee supply in the domestic market can receive short-term results. However, the profits of many export-oriented large companies are damaged, and the enthusiasm of the entire fertilizer industry is damaging. Moreover, the policy itself should have long-term and impartiality. This year, there is a general situation of power cuts and power cuts that cause the current situation of supply shortage. There will be no assessment pressure for energy saving and emission reduction next year, and it will surely resume the high operating rate, nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer, and compound The oversupply of fertilizer is an obvious matter. Is it time to issue another tariff adjustment measure? The fertilizer industry lacks a set of long-term, effective, scientific and market-based plans. This is the key to the problem.

From this point of view, organically combining “energy saving and emission reduction” with structural adjustment, actively cultivates benchmarking companies with high energy utilization, advanced technology, and strong market competitiveness, and uses market competition mechanisms to eliminate low energy utilization, backward technology, and markets. Poorly competitive and disadvantaged enterprises, at the same time, to further optimize the national chemical fertilizer logistics system is the cure for the chronic diseases in the chemical fertilizer industry. However, for the moment, the rise in **, coal, and natural gas still strongly promotes the strong rise in urea, ammonium phosphate, and compound fertilizers. Before the official tariff adjustment announcement is released, dealers may not be able to wait for better access to mobile phones. .