The strongest cold air hits the coal industry chain in advance
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The Central Meteorological Observatory issued a typhoon orange warning on the 20th. The "squid" may land on the coast near the central part of Guangdong Province around the 23rd. It is expected to be strong typhoon when landing.
Another news is: From today, the strongest cold air since the fall will "sweep" most of China from west to east. Affected by this, the temperature drop in the northeastern region, northern North China, Huanghuai, Jianghuai, and eastern Jiangnan can reach 12~16 °C.
In an interview with the reporter of "Daily Economic News", relevant meteorologists pointed out that the double pinch of the super strong typhoon and the strongest cold air will adversely affect the energy supply, transportation and agricultural production in some areas.
In fact, since the beginning of October, due to the early storage of coal by enterprises, the entire industrial chain of coal from production to transportation has changed significantly. The "Daily Economic News" reporter was informed that Qinhuangdao thermal coal has risen for two consecutive weeks, and the sea freight rate from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai has increased by 50% within one week.
Power coal for two weeks
"My goods must be in Guangzhou for two days. The customer is in a hurry. I must make sure that I will ship the goods first!" In the past few days, Mr. Chen, who is in charge of coal trade, has been very nervous.
“It is expected that coal prices will rise in the near future, so the company needs to start to reserve winter coal now.†On October 20th, the person in charge of a fuel purchase in Shandong Province was enough to explain Mr. Chen’s eagerness. The reporter of "Daily Economic News" learned that coal purchases in some areas have led to a decline in coal port reserves, which has driven up the price of coal in ports.
At 3 pm on October 20, the second phase price was released after the trial operation of the Bohai Sea Thermal Coal Price Index. The data shows that the average price of thermal coal in the Bohai Sea in this period was RMB 735/ton, up by RMB 10/ton from the previous period and up by 1.38% from the previous month. Among them, the biggest increase is 5800 kcal thermal coal, the price is 790 yuan ~ 800 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.27%; 4500 calorie thermal coal price is 560 yuan ~ 570 yuan / ton, up 10 last week Yuan/ton; 5000 kcal calorie thermal coal price is 640 yuan ~ 650 yuan / ton, up 15 yuan / ton from the previous period; 5500 kcal calorie thermal coal price is 735 yuan ~ 745 yuan / ton, compared with last week Rose 10 yuan / ton.
Demand has increased sharply, Qinhai coal and sea freight rates have risen in a “blowout†situation, and the price increase has further increased. According to the "Daily Economic News" reporter, as of October 20, the Qinhaidao Tongying Shipping Co., Ltd. provided 20,000 tons to 30,000 tons of ship type, Qinhuangdao Port to Shanghai, Zhangjiagang, Guangzhou, respectively, the sea freight rates For 73 yuan / ton, 78 yuan / ton, 98 yuan / ton, compared with the previous week's price, respectively, increased by 25 yuan / ton, 26 yuan / ton, 22 yuan / ton, an increase of 52.08%, 50% and 28.95 %, of which the Qinhuangdao-Shanghai route has the largest increase.
Cold winter expectations trigger "pre-storage of coal"
According to a person in charge of Qinhuangdao Port, the recent national temperature drop, cold winter expectations have brought psychological pressure to the large coal users, have "premature winter storage", "increase winter storage", coupled with the impact of bad weather, the port The closure of the ship and the port of the ship have led to the phenomenon of “grab coal†and “grab the shipâ€.
"Extremely cold weather will not only stimulate social heating and electricity consumption, coal demand growth, but also may cause coal transportation to be blocked," said senior coal expert Li Chaolin.
The previous forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory pointed out that the cold air activities affecting China in recent times are more frequent. The average temperature in the eastern, northern and northeastern regions of the northwestern region is 1 to 2 °C lower than normal. The northeastern part of Inner Mongolia and the northern part of Heilongjiang The temperature is as low as 3 °C. China's meteorological department also warned against the fall and winter of this year.
Affected by the No. 13 super typhoon "squid" and cold air this year, in recent days, the northern Qinhuangdao, Caofeidian and Jingtang Port three harbors have foggy and windy weather, and there have been closures.
According to reports, coal stocks in Jingtang Port Area have been at a high level. As of October 20, the total coal inventory in Hong Kong was 3.2 million tons. Due to the recent increase in demand from coal-consuming enterprises, there were more ships coming to Hong Kong. Coal stocks in Jingtang Port area fell to 2.99 million tons, affected by the closure of the air, coal stocks in Jingtang Port rebounded again, the coal farm stock in Jingtang Port Area reached 3.2 million tons.
Industry insiders worry that once traffic jams occur as important coal transportation roads, it is likely to cause coal to “break the chainâ€.
It is understood that due to the uncertainty of maritime transportation in the winter expected season, Shandong Province has required 100 years of coastal power plants such as Yantai, Yantai, Weihai, Rizhao, Qingdao and Huangdao to further strengthen the transportation of seaborne coal. In recent years, the external transfer of Shandong Power Coal Province has increased year by year. According to calculations by relevant departments, in 2009, the province's coal consumption was 145 million tons, an increase of 35% over 2006, of which 100 million tons were transferred outside the province, an increase of 52%. .
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